In his acceptance speech, Senator Obama promised to go over the budget line by line to weed out federal spending. This is the typical kind of promise Presidential candidates make. But actually doing so would be incredibly irresponsible. The budget is over 1300 pages long. Assume it takes an hour to go over a page (not unrealistic because many of the pages would require extensive background information and meetings) and that the President puts in a 10 hour day (they put in longer days, but he will also need to get his national security briefings and receive foreign dignitaries etc.) Actually going over the budget would take 130 working days, or more than one third of his time in office. Many of these efforts would require lobbying and log-trading on with Congress and many of the victories would be Pyrrhic. In the dangerous world we live in, would saving $1.5 million dollars by scaling down a new tourist center in Akron be worth hours of the President's time?
Of course, Obama's promise was just rhetoric. He won't really do this, a President's most valuable resource is his time and, like every President before him, he will pick his fights carefully. Battles over small-scale pork-barrel projects will not be getting priority.
Budget Review Process
In fact, there is already an extensive budget review process, through the all-powerful Office of Management and Budget. In the Bush administration, cabinet members could appeal OMB decisions to the budget review board, chaired by ---- Vice President Cheney.
This is the only formal power-base Cheney possessed. Everything else was contingent on his relationship with the President. There are two interesting aspects to this role.
First, Cheney got his teeth in the Ford Administration. Vice President Rockefeller hoped to "run" domestic policy and was the Vice Chair (the President was chair) of the Domestic Policy Council. Instead of being a power-base, it was an enormous drain on Rockefeller's energy and it turned Rockefeller into a lightning rod in the policy wars. Cheney no doubt took the lesson that a formal, high-profile VP role had major costs. Instead, Cheney exercised influence through a low-profile, little noticed insider position.
It also illustrates the limits of Cheney's influence. Cheney is a small government, fiscal conservative. Big budget expenditures like the drug program are not Cheney initiatives - they came from the President. At the budget review board, Cheney could have substantial influence on the margins - but the broad course (as always) is set by the President. The story of Cheney's impact on the broader course has yet to be told.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Bite o'Biden
Watching the Colbert Report, Mike Huckabee described Biden as a vanilla choice for the Vice Presidency. That doesn't seem quite fair. Rum raisin seems a better fit - mostly vanilla - but with a little bit of something else. Something that either makes it much better or much worse, but with a bit of rum (Biden's self deprecating good humor) to push it towards better.
He proved he will do one important VP job well. He can give a good speech and the VP spends a lot of time out on the trail giving stump speeches. He tried to show his foreign policy credentials by naming all of the big foreign policy problems we face. He wants to hold Russia accountable - terrific, the mice wanted to bell the cat. And he reiterated his obsession with talking to the Iranians (Clinton vets will remind him what a Sisyphean torment negotiating with the mullahs will be.) But convention speeches are not policy addresses, they are show. Joe Biden gave a good one.
Trouble for Pakistan's Possible Next President?
Reports have surfaced that PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari "was suffering from severe psychiatric problems as recently as last year..."
Zardari (husband of the late Benazir Bhutto) is the defacto head of Pakistan's largest political party. His alliance with the other major political party PML-N fell apart shortly after Musharraf resigned. Knowing Pakistani politics this is not surprising.
Zardari is probably fine, the claims of psychiatric troubles were really a legal gambit to postpone a trial for corruption in the UK.
It would be nice to think that this is a sign that Pakistani politics has moved to character assassination - a real improvement since usually that nation's politics is rocked by the real thing. But it is maddening that the country's leaders cannot seem to come together in a time of severe crisis.
Another worrying sign is the tiff between the American Ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, and the State Department's assistant secretary for South Asia Richard Boucher. Boucher is mad because Khalilzad is having unsanctioned contacts with Zardari and somehow this spat found its way into The New York Times. Hmmm...
Boucher is long-time Foreign Service, whereas Khalilzad is close to the administration. Virtually every administration complains about the State Department. FDR considered them more obstreperous then Treasury - but not as bad as the Navy. Kennedy thought Foggy Bottom was running its own government. In general, administrations figure out how to work with the foreign policy bureaucracy, but this administration has not been able to do so. Every administration has to do occasional end runs around the bureauracy sometimes, and the administration undoubtedly has its reasons for being frustrated with "the striped pants crowd."
But these end runs must be sued sparingly and this is a crucial issue. Pakistan is an impoverished, cobbled together country that in the best of times is in a partial state of collapse. And it has nukes. Currently in the throes of multiple insurgencies, an economic crisis, rising Islamist radicalism, Pakistan will be at the top of the next administration's priority list. And they have nukes!
Yes, the hour is late and this administration doesn't have much gas left. But building frameworks that can be expanded under the next President is still possible. Biden mentioned Pakistan as a major area of concern in his speech tonight. Even some spadework would be appreciated no matter who takes office in January
It is frustrating that Pakistan's political class cannot get its act together and move forward in the national interest - but on this issue the United States is a glass house.
Zardari (husband of the late Benazir Bhutto) is the defacto head of Pakistan's largest political party. His alliance with the other major political party PML-N fell apart shortly after Musharraf resigned. Knowing Pakistani politics this is not surprising.
Zardari is probably fine, the claims of psychiatric troubles were really a legal gambit to postpone a trial for corruption in the UK.
It would be nice to think that this is a sign that Pakistani politics has moved to character assassination - a real improvement since usually that nation's politics is rocked by the real thing. But it is maddening that the country's leaders cannot seem to come together in a time of severe crisis.
Another worrying sign is the tiff between the American Ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, and the State Department's assistant secretary for South Asia Richard Boucher. Boucher is mad because Khalilzad is having unsanctioned contacts with Zardari and somehow this spat found its way into The New York Times. Hmmm...
Boucher is long-time Foreign Service, whereas Khalilzad is close to the administration. Virtually every administration complains about the State Department. FDR considered them more obstreperous then Treasury - but not as bad as the Navy. Kennedy thought Foggy Bottom was running its own government. In general, administrations figure out how to work with the foreign policy bureaucracy, but this administration has not been able to do so. Every administration has to do occasional end runs around the bureauracy sometimes, and the administration undoubtedly has its reasons for being frustrated with "the striped pants crowd."
But these end runs must be sued sparingly and this is a crucial issue. Pakistan is an impoverished, cobbled together country that in the best of times is in a partial state of collapse. And it has nukes. Currently in the throes of multiple insurgencies, an economic crisis, rising Islamist radicalism, Pakistan will be at the top of the next administration's priority list. And they have nukes!
Yes, the hour is late and this administration doesn't have much gas left. But building frameworks that can be expanded under the next President is still possible. Biden mentioned Pakistan as a major area of concern in his speech tonight. Even some spadework would be appreciated no matter who takes office in January
It is frustrating that Pakistan's political class cannot get its act together and move forward in the national interest - but on this issue the United States is a glass house.
Monday, August 25, 2008
VeepCritique Updates
With the choice of Biden, I am posting more over at VeepCritique.
Everyone wants to talk about who it will be - I want to know what they will do.
Everyone wants to talk about who it will be - I want to know what they will do.
Biden (not Bayh, boo hoo) assessment
Obama picked Biden, a reasonable choice. Obama is an outsider and Biden is an insider, able to give Obama the kind of inside advice about how DC works that he will need should he become president. That Biden has particularly strong credentials on international affairs, an area where Obama's resume is thin.
Although Biden is being criticized for being not representing change, he is an "ideas" guy so he could still be positioned to represent new thinking.
Unfortunately, ideas are cheap in DC - implementation is what really matters. Is this Biden's strength - I'll leave that to long time Hill watchers to judge.
Another crucial characteristic for VPs is discretion (and remembering who is President.) Even disagreeing with the President in staff meetings can leak out. This may not be the mercurial Sen. Biden's strength. Of course, outspoken VPs might find themselves relegated to crowning produce queens in the farm belt. (Alben Barkley liked that job...)
Still, overall, a decent solid and serious pick.
Biden Train
Commentators keep noting that Biden takes Amtrak to get to Capitol Hill from his home in Wilmington. This is evidence of his common touch. He has also used his weight on the Hill as an advocate for Amtrak.
There are obvious positive spins to this - but there is the negative as well. He pushes for service that costs tax-payer dollars that benefits him. (He lives just far away enough that driving each way would be hassle.) Thanks to Amtrak he doesn't need a second home, but can work during his commute without having to pay for a driver. Good deal!
Maybe we should all try to do this (personally I am a fan of a solid rail transit network). But it could be spun another way, that this is a typical "liberal" program, subsidizing something that ends up benefiting the not-so-needy (sort of like rent control in Cambridge, MA.)
What about Hillary?
Apparently Hillary fans are mad because she wasn't even considered. But there was a simple reason for not considering her. A President does not need an ex-President hanging around the White House - no matter who it is. (Recall the abortive Reagan-Ford negotiations in 1980.)
That the ex-President in question is Bill Clinton might exacerbate the issue...
Although Biden is being criticized for being not representing change, he is an "ideas" guy so he could still be positioned to represent new thinking.
Unfortunately, ideas are cheap in DC - implementation is what really matters. Is this Biden's strength - I'll leave that to long time Hill watchers to judge.
Another crucial characteristic for VPs is discretion (and remembering who is President.) Even disagreeing with the President in staff meetings can leak out. This may not be the mercurial Sen. Biden's strength. Of course, outspoken VPs might find themselves relegated to crowning produce queens in the farm belt. (Alben Barkley liked that job...)
Still, overall, a decent solid and serious pick.
Biden Train
Commentators keep noting that Biden takes Amtrak to get to Capitol Hill from his home in Wilmington. This is evidence of his common touch. He has also used his weight on the Hill as an advocate for Amtrak.
There are obvious positive spins to this - but there is the negative as well. He pushes for service that costs tax-payer dollars that benefits him. (He lives just far away enough that driving each way would be hassle.) Thanks to Amtrak he doesn't need a second home, but can work during his commute without having to pay for a driver. Good deal!
Maybe we should all try to do this (personally I am a fan of a solid rail transit network). But it could be spun another way, that this is a typical "liberal" program, subsidizing something that ends up benefiting the not-so-needy (sort of like rent control in Cambridge, MA.)
What about Hillary?
Apparently Hillary fans are mad because she wasn't even considered. But there was a simple reason for not considering her. A President does not need an ex-President hanging around the White House - no matter who it is. (Recall the abortive Reagan-Ford negotiations in 1980.)
That the ex-President in question is Bill Clinton might exacerbate the issue...
Friday, August 22, 2008
Obama's Options: Someone Just Right
Tomorrow, Obama will announce his Vice Presidential candidate. He knows who it is, but none of the rest of us know anything.
Obama said the right thing, noting that first of all he needed someone who could become President and second someone who could help him govern. He did not say, but perhaps should have, that he needs someone he can get along with – because the single most salient fact about Vice Presidents is that they can’t really be fired until the next election (and doing so that point usually looks pretty bad.)
The third quality is a bad sign for two possibles, Joe Biden and Jim Webb, both of whom have been known for gaffes. Vice Presidents can never show any deviance from the President’s policy – neither of these gentleman, worthy in many regards, could be guaranteed on that front.
It is difficult to say who is fit to be President – we just tend to know it when we see. But for aid in governance, Obama is a classic outsider with limited Washington experience. So first and foremost, he needs someone who knows Washington. Other knowledge deficits are national security and executive experience.
Obama may be running on his judgment, but process is about how things actually get done – and the learning curve is steep. Mondale, Gore, Cheney, and to a lesser extent Bush 1 served as senior counselors who could assist the President in getting stuff done. Mondale took over the White House agenda setting process, Cheney ran the Budget Review Committee. Bush 1 ran the NSC’s Crisis Management Committee.
This is the stuff that will flummox Obama and he will need a VP who can take on these kinds of nuts and bolts tasks, disagree in private – but remain loyal in public.
Arguably, the best relationship between a President and his VP was Clinton-Gore, where, in addition to having strengths in policy areas where Clinton was weak – Gore also brought discipline to the process.
Virginia’s Tim Kaine has been much touted, but he has zero Washington or national security experience. None. In fact his resume most closely resembles that of Spiro Agnew (former Baltimore County Executive and 2 years into his first term as Governor of Maryland.) Kaine is undoubtedly a better and smarter man than Agnew, but Agnew was the last outsider VP and – personal weaknesses aside – there were process issues that isolated him as well.
Golden Boy is the Golden Mean
Evan Bayh is called the safe choice, but he is also an excellent choice. He (paralleling Al Gore) was the son of a Senator and attended St. Albans. In his own right he was a two term governor and has been in the Senate for 10 years – where he as served on Armed Forces and Select Intelligence. Resume-wise he is exactly the kind of person Obama needs.
Within the party he is a moderate, who has spoken about the importance of Democrats reaching out to more conservative groups. This is also a classic VP selection strategy – picking someone from the opposite wing of the party (Reagan-Bush, Carter-Mondale, Kerry-Edwards – are just a few of the examples.)
Finally, Bayh is low-key and unlikely to overshadow Obama but likely to make a good impression. Bayh’s background shows him as a person with good qualifications for the Presidency and the right skills to help govern. Bayh would highlight Obama’s good judgment, and further the campaign’s youthful appearance.
At the same time, VP would serve Bayh well. Bayh is an oddly unforceful speaker, but Veeps spend a lot of time on the campaign trail (party-building) and Bayh would get better in this role very quickly.
If Biden is a bit too much and Kaine is not quite enough - Bayh is just right.
Obama said the right thing, noting that first of all he needed someone who could become President and second someone who could help him govern. He did not say, but perhaps should have, that he needs someone he can get along with – because the single most salient fact about Vice Presidents is that they can’t really be fired until the next election (and doing so that point usually looks pretty bad.)
The third quality is a bad sign for two possibles, Joe Biden and Jim Webb, both of whom have been known for gaffes. Vice Presidents can never show any deviance from the President’s policy – neither of these gentleman, worthy in many regards, could be guaranteed on that front.
It is difficult to say who is fit to be President – we just tend to know it when we see. But for aid in governance, Obama is a classic outsider with limited Washington experience. So first and foremost, he needs someone who knows Washington. Other knowledge deficits are national security and executive experience.
Obama may be running on his judgment, but process is about how things actually get done – and the learning curve is steep. Mondale, Gore, Cheney, and to a lesser extent Bush 1 served as senior counselors who could assist the President in getting stuff done. Mondale took over the White House agenda setting process, Cheney ran the Budget Review Committee. Bush 1 ran the NSC’s Crisis Management Committee.
This is the stuff that will flummox Obama and he will need a VP who can take on these kinds of nuts and bolts tasks, disagree in private – but remain loyal in public.
Arguably, the best relationship between a President and his VP was Clinton-Gore, where, in addition to having strengths in policy areas where Clinton was weak – Gore also brought discipline to the process.
Virginia’s Tim Kaine has been much touted, but he has zero Washington or national security experience. None. In fact his resume most closely resembles that of Spiro Agnew (former Baltimore County Executive and 2 years into his first term as Governor of Maryland.) Kaine is undoubtedly a better and smarter man than Agnew, but Agnew was the last outsider VP and – personal weaknesses aside – there were process issues that isolated him as well.
Golden Boy is the Golden Mean
Evan Bayh is called the safe choice, but he is also an excellent choice. He (paralleling Al Gore) was the son of a Senator and attended St. Albans. In his own right he was a two term governor and has been in the Senate for 10 years – where he as served on Armed Forces and Select Intelligence. Resume-wise he is exactly the kind of person Obama needs.
Within the party he is a moderate, who has spoken about the importance of Democrats reaching out to more conservative groups. This is also a classic VP selection strategy – picking someone from the opposite wing of the party (Reagan-Bush, Carter-Mondale, Kerry-Edwards – are just a few of the examples.)
Finally, Bayh is low-key and unlikely to overshadow Obama but likely to make a good impression. Bayh’s background shows him as a person with good qualifications for the Presidency and the right skills to help govern. Bayh would highlight Obama’s good judgment, and further the campaign’s youthful appearance.
At the same time, VP would serve Bayh well. Bayh is an oddly unforceful speaker, but Veeps spend a lot of time on the campaign trail (party-building) and Bayh would get better in this role very quickly.
If Biden is a bit too much and Kaine is not quite enough - Bayh is just right.
Russia v. Georgia: Flanks in the 4th Dimension
My previous post is an article I co-wrote with Jim Hendler in which I argue that the Russia-Georgia spat wasn't really much of a cyber-war. It was, however, an a sophisticated information war. Not in the sense that information systems were crucial, or disrupted. But the Russia carried out their operation at a crucial time in which the United States had limited capabilities to process the information and develop a response.
In traditional warfare, enemies seek to find weak points in opponents defenses and positions. This occurs primarily in space, although time is important as well. As the ability to collect and process information expands, issues of time matter more and more.
In this case, the Russians struck in the waning days of a Presidency. Regardless of its own failings, no administration has much political capital in its last few months in office. Key personnel have left or are considering their individual exit strategies. This was compounded by carrying out the attack during the Olympics - when the world's attention (and many leaders) were elsewhere.
There was a recent precedent for Russia's use of the American presidential election/transition process. In October 2000 al-Qaeda struck the U.S.S. Cole in the Aden harbor. Although President Clinton told the 911 Commission that his administration's limited time left in office was not a factor in preventing the administration from retaliating - it seems intuitively unlikely that this had no impact. Regardless, the change in administrations did disrupt the development of a coherent policy.
As world affairs become more complex and proceed at a faster pace, these kinds of weaknesses in time and in the decision-making process will loom larger and become more important components in strategic and operational planning.
In traditional warfare, enemies seek to find weak points in opponents defenses and positions. This occurs primarily in space, although time is important as well. As the ability to collect and process information expands, issues of time matter more and more.
In this case, the Russians struck in the waning days of a Presidency. Regardless of its own failings, no administration has much political capital in its last few months in office. Key personnel have left or are considering their individual exit strategies. This was compounded by carrying out the attack during the Olympics - when the world's attention (and many leaders) were elsewhere.
There was a recent precedent for Russia's use of the American presidential election/transition process. In October 2000 al-Qaeda struck the U.S.S. Cole in the Aden harbor. Although President Clinton told the 911 Commission that his administration's limited time left in office was not a factor in preventing the administration from retaliating - it seems intuitively unlikely that this had no impact. Regardless, the change in administrations did disrupt the development of a coherent policy.
As world affairs become more complex and proceed at a faster pace, these kinds of weaknesses in time and in the decision-making process will loom larger and become more important components in strategic and operational planning.
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