tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post5627789852212456795..comments2023-08-20T10:44:05.001-04:00Comments on TerrorWonk: The End of Pakistan?Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-54751133495992916602010-08-24T21:19:41.829-04:002010-08-24T21:19:41.829-04:00Anonymous:
Farhana Ali expounds on "The Mili...Anonymous:<br /><br />Farhana Ali expounds on "The Militant Myth":<br /><br />http://counterterrorismblog.org/2010/08/the_militant_myth_1.php<br /><br />August 22, 2010<br />The Militant Myth<br />By Farhana Ali<br /><br />"...On Saturday morning, I appeared on Fox News to discuss whether militants in Pakistan could recruit among the millions of flood victims. The story began with a statement made by US Senator John Kerry, the first American official to visit the flood-hit areas, “We don’t want additional jihadists (and) extremists coming out of a crisis.” The idea that the human tragedy in Pakistan is a “frightening opening for the Taliban” is not yet substantiated but certainly makes for sensational news. We should remember that the Taliban is and has never been a charitable organization. The Taliban does not have a social services institute, and instead, boasts of enforcing and providing justice and order in the form of Qazi courts (i.e., harsh interpretation of Shariah law)..."Philip Henikanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-13247200971158863442010-08-24T00:50:03.710-04:002010-08-24T00:50:03.710-04:00'Regrouping'? What does that mean? The v...'Regrouping'? What does that mean? The vast majority of Taliban spread throughout the FATA remain unaffected and unconcerned about the rest of the country - other than the opportunity the lack of any effective government in vast swaths of Pakistan now presents. A few areas the controlled/contested have been affected by the floods but some like the Swat they have recently been driven out of by the Pak military. 'Regrouping' only applies if it implies that they are consolidating themselves in a military and political sense to further challenge for control of large areas of rural Pakistan either during or after the present disaster.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-38894284389029465392010-08-22T10:35:45.963-04:002010-08-22T10:35:45.963-04:00I read the summary of the CRS report (posted by St...I read the summary of the CRS report (posted by Steven Aftergood - link above) on security in the wake of the floods in Pakistan and its conclusion was that radical groups will benefit and the threat of terrorism will grow as a result of this natural disaster. The CRS report apparently did not treat the null hypothesis that the terrorism threat will not grow. So, how could radical groups not grow in this situation? The first indications are based on US, India and Pakistan emergency relief i.e pro-American, pro-Pakistan, pro-India sentiment has a chance to evolve and, from what I gather from news reports, that is what is actually happening. Pakistan needs to listen to its community spokespersons and it can be predicted that they will request help with basic needs i.e. food/water, shelter, transportation and security. Pakistan is a blank page for peacebuilding initiative. Pakistan might consider rebuilding in an innovative way i.e. not rebuild schools but energy-efficient schools (school garden projects have been on the rise in the US). Pakistan might consider Habitat for Humanity style homes or alternative energy sources for restoration of services. My hope is that Pakistan and the nations that help Pakistan will sustain peacebuilding initative beyond emergency relief. In a final note, during the tidal wave crisis in Indonesia, the Tamil Tigers actually had the gaul to demand aid. Have we heard such a demand from the Taliban? I do not know. I have heard that they are "regrouping". Well, if they regrouping then they might have been effected by the floods as well. Regrouping also implies movement and can't movement be tracked?Philip Henikanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-91936692839560136572010-08-21T04:08:38.723-04:002010-08-21T04:08:38.723-04:00Aaron,
an excellent analysis...I may not agree wit...Aaron,<br />an excellent analysis...I may not agree with part of it but that should not take away the sheen from your in depth probe in the future of Pakistan...<br /><br />Lets hope and pray that there still is some way to deliver and salvage the poor citizens of Pakistan from their Elites...Army, ISI, Politicians and the Landlords..<br />Abuabu singhhttp://abubtn@yahoo.co.innoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-29997762153715734262010-08-20T10:48:50.242-04:002010-08-20T10:48:50.242-04:00Aaron:
Thanks much for your reply.
There ha...Aaron:<br /> Thanks much for your reply. <br /><br /> <br /><br />There has been some impetus (1,2) and yet very little media attention for a 'global peacebuilding initiative' i.e. there is not a UN Resolution that sends a delegation to member nations for an objective assessment of their efforts to end war, end disease, use energy efficiently and adapt to climate change. However, UN Resolution 1373 has sent a delegation to the 55 member nations for an objective assessment of counterterrorism efforts. I see this approach as precedent and practice for the putative global peacebuilding initiative. <br /><br /> <br /><br />I wanted to answer some your points. <br /><br /> <br /><br />First, governments have not been the drivers for a global peacebuilding initiative. Rather, it has been communites like Marjah (1) i.e. I have looked for community spokesman such as Azizullah Khan. Azizullah Khan basically asked for attention paid by Karzai for services which address the basic needs of the Marjah communites. The thinking here is that there needs to be an effort to keep the Taliban from a return and that this effort would, hopefully direct Marjah's community members toward a future other than terrorism. <br /><br /><br /><br />Right now, the Pakistan military is not at war with anyone i.e. 60,000 troops have been directed for flood relief. Apparently, the Taliban have been affected by the flood i.e. they are "regrouping" and this potential threat apparently deserves more media attention than the flood itself. I do not think it is a stretch to conclude that the world's most effective terrorist is actually Mother Nature with help via climate change.<br /><br /><br /><br />The four basic needs are in the spotlight, for me anyway, for several reasons. For one, in a global recession, more folks approach the poverty line and needs replace wants. Two, waging war in a time of recession only increases the cost of war and, even though Obama justifies war as a fight against evil in his Nobel Prize speech, war only functions to create more enemies and foment more evil.<br /><br /><br /><br />Now, I am not saying to simply lay down arms and walk away from war but I do think there need to be a graduated change in the role the US military plays in other countries e.g. training and intelligence. This is actually happening. Eventually, with the end of war, the military will be used solely for disaster relief.<br /><br /> <br /><br /> (1) Afghanistan: Winning in Marjah, Winning Beyond?<br /><br />Posted by Scott Lucas in Afghanistan <br /> <br />http://enduringamerica.com/2010/03/12/afghanistan-winning-in-marjah-winning-beyond/<br /> <br />(2) SECRECY NEWS<br />from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy<br />Volume 2010, Issue No. 66<br />August 18, 2010<br /><br />Secrecy News Blog: http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/<br /><br />SECURITY AND ENVIRONMENT IN PAKISTAN (CRS)<br /> <br />http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2010/08/pakistan_environment.html#respondPhilip Henikanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-32366436934853690582010-08-20T10:46:06.252-04:002010-08-20T10:46:06.252-04:00Aaron:
Thanks much for your reply.
There has b...Aaron:<br /> <br />Thanks much for your reply. <br /><br />There has been some impetus (1,2) and yet very little media attention for a 'global peacebuilding initiative' i.e. there is not a UN Resolution that sends a delegation to member nations for an objective assessment of their efforts to end war, end disease, use energy efficiently and adapt to climate change. However, UN Resolution 1373 has sent a delegation to the 55 member nations for an objective assessment of counterterrorism efforts. I see this approach as precedent and practice for the putative global peacebuilding initiative. <br /><br />I wanted to answer some your points. <br /><br />First, governments have not been the drivers for a global peacebuilding initiative. Rather, it has been communites like Marjah (1) i.e. I have looked for community spokesman such as Azizullah Khan. Azizullah Khan basically asked for attention paid by Karzai for services which address the basic needs of the Marjah communites. The thinking here is that there needs to be an effort to keep the Taliban from a return and that this effort would, hopefully direct Marjah's community members toward a future other than terrorism. <br /><br />Right now, the Pakistan military is not at war with anyone i.e. 60,000 troops have been directed for flood relief. Apparently, the Taliban have been affected by the flood i.e. they are "regrouping" and this potential threat apparently deserves more media attention than the flood itself. I do not think it is a stretch to conclude that the world's most effective terrorist is actually Mother Nature with help via climate change.<br /><br />The four basic needs are in the spotlight, for me anyway, for several reasons. For one, in a global recession, more folks approach the poverty line and needs replace wants. Two, waging war in a time of recession only increases the cost of war and, even though Obama justifies war as a fight against evil in his Nobel Prize speech, war only functions to create more enemies and foment more evil.<br /><br />Now, I am not saying to simply lay down arms and walk away from war but I do think there need to be a graduated change in the role the US military plays in other countries e.g. training and intelligence. This is actually happening. Eventually, with the end of war, the military will be used solely for disaster relief.<br /><br />(1) Afghanistan: Winning in Marjah, Winning Beyond?<br /><br />Posted by Scott Lucas in Afghanistan <br /> <br />http://enduringamerica.com/2010/03/12/afghanistan-winning-in-marjah-winning-beyond/<br /> <br />(2) SECRECY NEWS<br />from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy<br />Volume 2010, Issue No. 66<br />August 18, 2010<br /><br />Secrecy News Blog: http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/<br /><br />SECURITY AND ENVIRONMENT IN PAKISTAN (CRS)<br /> <br />http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2010/08/pakistan_environment.html#respondPhilip Henikanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-56517799177860206542010-08-19T18:12:59.538-04:002010-08-19T18:12:59.538-04:00As some one said - no hardship should be wasted. I...As some one said - no hardship should be wasted. It's time to look for what is the fundamental change that would deliver people of Pakistan from this pathetic and miserable life. It's the people we want to save and uplift not the Paki State. Paki State has proven beyond doubt a miserable state for the last 63 years: promotes religious intolerance in school books, the first line of the Pakistan constitution says it is a Islamic Nation, attacked and still occupies Baluchistan, attacked and still occupies part of Kashmir, sold part of Kashmir to China, still occupies land mass (Durand line) that belongs to Afghanistan, begs $3 billion in aid from US and very same week signs $2 billion deal with China to build nuclear plants, has over $53 billion in loan form international community, protects Mumbai attackers and planners, butchered Bangladeshi in 1971, sells nuclear knowhow to rogue countries and on and on…<br /><br />May be it is time that international community, especially United States should consider international efforts of dividing Pakistan into rational naturally homogenic smaller countries where people can be helped, uplifted and brought to 21st century. This country is falling apart any way. What is the benefit of propping a corrupt constitutionally Islamic State? Falling apart may be the better solution. It’s the Paki people we American want to see helped. Is it too much to ask, Mrs. Clinton? Be visionary. Mrs. Clinton, here you have a chance to write history and emancipate millions of unfortunate Paki people from the clutches of a feudalistic terrorist sponsoring Paki State institutions. Let the Paki people breath dawn of new era.<br /><br />Unites States has done many favors to Paki State; apart from the financial help, the biggest favor is saving Pakistan from Russian invasion. Pakistan was in no position to defend itself against Russian invasion. How ungrateful are Pakis?<br /><br />If tax dollars of hard working US workers has to be given away to terrorist sponsoring and exporting nation because of humanity and suffering of Paki people, United States must help people not the corrupt State by asking at least a few changes: 1) Purge all your school books of religious intolerance and hatred towards other religions and culture, 2) Change constitution from Islamic to secular nation, if you desire help from secular countries, 3) Capture Osama bin laden and present him to US forces, 4) Get out of Pakistan tortured portion of Kashmir and Baluchistan, 5) Stop protecting terrorist breeding organizations, 6) Dismantle ISI now.<br /><br />It’s a shame that United States with thousand of nukes has to bribe corrupt state ---- for nothing, and it is the biggest disservice to Pakistani people. John Kerry needs to understand American values: help unfortunate people not zealot and corrupt Paki State institution. Please call your senators in DC and let them know: no more support for corrupt and terrorism exporting state institutions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-90315816252780937962010-08-19T18:01:03.290-04:002010-08-19T18:01:03.290-04:00As some one said - no hardship should be wasted. I...As some one said - no hardship should be wasted. It's time to look for what is the fundamental change that would deliver people of Pakistan from this pathetic and miserable life. It's the people we want to save and uplift not the Paki State. Paki State has proven beyond doubt a miserable state for the last 63 years: promotes religious intolerance in school books, the first line of the Pakistan constitution says it is a Islamic Nation, attacked and still occupies Baluchistan, attacked and still occupies part of Kashmir, sold part of Kashmir to China, still occupies land mass (Durand line) that belongs to Afghanistan, begs $3 billion in aid from US and very same week signs $2 billion deal with China to build nuclear plants, has over $53 billion in loan form international community, protects Mumbai attackers and planners, butchered Bangladeshi in 1971, sells nuclear knowhow to rogue countries and on and on…<br /><br />May be it is time that international community, especially United States, consider international efforts of dividing Pakistan into rational naturally homogenic smaller countries where people can be helped, uplifted and brought to 21st century. This country is falling apart any way. What is the benefit of propping a corrupt Islamic State? Falling apart may be the better solution. <br /><br />Unites States has done many favors to Paki State; the biggest one is saving Pakistan from Russian invasion. Pakistan was in no position to defend itself against Russian invasion. How ungrateful?<br /><br />If tax dollars of hard working US workers has to be given away to terrorist sponsoring and exporting nation, United States must help people not the corrupt State by asking at least following changes: 1) Purge all your school books of religious intolerance and hatred towards other religions, 2) Change constitution from Islamic to secular nation, if you desire help from secular countries, 3) Capture Osama bin laden and present him to US forces 4) Get out of Pakistan tortured portion of Kashmir and stop protecting terrorist breeding organizations, 6) Dismantle ISI now.<br /><br />It’s a shame that United States with thousand of nukes has to bribe corrupt state ---- for nothing, and it is the biggest disservice to Pakistani people. John Kerry needs to understand American values: help unfortunate people not zealot and corrupt Paki State institution. Please call your senators in DC and let them know: no more support for corrupt and terrorism exporting state institutions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-90918260252219617432010-08-19T17:35:44.302-04:002010-08-19T17:35:44.302-04:00To my suspicious friends -
Thanks for your commen...To my suspicious friends -<br /><br />Thanks for your comments.<br /><br />I have had no contact with RAW (that I know of - I could have been approached by agents without knowing they were agents - I have me KGB guys that way, only finding out later.) I cannot imagine that RAW would waste its resources paying off a minor blogger such as myself.<br /><br />That being said, I don't know if I am a friend of Pakistan, but I am also not unfriendly. I would very much like to see a prosperous Pakistan, at peace internally and with its neighbors.<br /><br />Just as I feared, you read my thoughts as an intention (I mention this possibility in the conclusion.)<br /><br />My concerns are based on hard objective analysis. I cannot imagine anyone arguing that Pakistan has been blessed with good governance. States do collapse and Pakistan seems a potential candidate.<br /><br />You can also interpret this piece as a wake-up call. Provide real aid to Pakistan or this is the potential result. BTW - I don't think a collapse is in India's interests. It would bring refugee crises, possible plagues, and Islamic mini-states on its border. I wouldn't want that and I can't imagine RAW would either.<br /><br />Finally, states have to carry-out contingency planning. This is a possibility that simply shouldn't be ignored, no matter how unpleasant.Aaron Manneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-10025666750540595402010-08-19T17:28:39.108-04:002010-08-19T17:28:39.108-04:00Philip -
Always happy to have you join the conver...Philip -<br /><br />Always happy to have you join the conversation. I don't object to anything you've written in principle. However, I a practical issues. The first is that the record of international development programs is not a strong one. Saying that basic needs will be provided for and actually providing them are different issues.<br /><br />Also, providing for basic needs is a critical first step, but not adequate. States need decent governance - this has been woefully lacking in Pakistan.<br /><br />Finally, the reality is that you can try your best, but what if the state of Pakistan simply isn't viable anymore?Aaron Manneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-8517780863505702892010-08-19T14:19:53.012-04:002010-08-19T14:19:53.012-04:00Dear Friend,
Please let us know how much you have ...Dear Friend,<br />Please let us know how much you have been paid by Indian intelligence RAW to write such an anti-Pakistan story. We Pakistanis know that people like you can turn the world into a getto and devastations of Iraq and Afghanistan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-21110825390941407112010-08-18T08:20:30.917-04:002010-08-18T08:20:30.917-04:00The answer to Pakistan's problems, and the wor...The answer to Pakistan's problems, and the world's problems for that matter, lies in the precedents and practice of a global peacebuilding initiative. This initiative would ask nations questions re: the end of war, the end of disease, the efficient use of energy and the adaptation to climate change. This initiative would begin with the basic needs of people i.e. food and water, shelter, transportation and security. A global peacebuilding initiative is not without precedent e.g. UN Resolution 1373 has produced a survey of member nations re: counterterrorism efforts and so, why not a survey of efforts to end a future of resource wars before they start to flourish?Philip Henikanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-70626573674323514832010-08-18T08:18:51.672-04:002010-08-18T08:18:51.672-04:00The answer to Pakistan's problems, and the wor...The answer to Pakistan's problems, and the world's problems for that matter, lies in the precedents and practice of a global peacebuilding initiative. This initiative would ask nations questions re: the end of war, the end of disease, the efficient use of energy and the adaptation to climate change. This initiative would begin with the basic needs of people i.e. food and water, shelter, transportation and security. A global peacebuilding initiative is not without precedent e.g. UN Resolution 1373 has produced a survey of member nations re: counterterrorism efforts and so, why not a survey of efforts to end a future of resource wars before they start to flourish?Philip Henikanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-72243838278093285072010-08-18T00:31:56.274-04:002010-08-18T00:31:56.274-04:00Thanks for your comment and for reading. Your blo...Thanks for your comment and for reading. Your blogs looks like fascinating stuff and I expect I'll visit often.<br /><br />That's my fear - Pakistan is only a few steps behind Yemen - but with nukes.<br /><br />Maybe a change of scenery to that sceptered isle would do the long-suffering Pakistanis some good.Aaron Manneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-59512127540409024712010-08-17T16:08:25.590-04:002010-08-17T16:08:25.590-04:00Very interesting. I think the confluence of dwindl...Very interesting. I think the confluence of dwindling resources, huge population growth, Islamic governance and tribalism all spell bad news. <br /><br />But at least it's not Yemen ;-)<br /><br />Thanks for this post. Very astute. Linked to it over at my blog where I conclude that they can all relocate to the UK. This will not solve any problems, but simply make the UK resemble Pakistan, ie, no rule of law, nepotism, lack of religious freedom and freedom of expression, etc.Abu Daoudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18399746942963002389noreply@blogger.com