tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post4630801605690908359..comments2023-08-20T10:44:05.001-04:00Comments on TerrorWonk: Modeling Terrorist Group Behavior: Hamas & HezbollahAaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-42331673485308000812009-01-12T00:34:00.000-05:002009-01-12T00:34:00.000-05:00Very cool, and thanks for sharing. I was curious,...Very cool, and thanks for sharing. I was curious, how much does game theory play into SOMA? Or does it? If this is a prediction model, then I imagine various aspects of game theory would be used. On my blog Feral Jundi, I get into some of this stuff. But I am not an academic. Most of my stuff is about security contracting, but I do like checking out new technologies. <BR/><BR/>On another note, you might get a kick out of another story I posted about Ushahidi--a SMS/Twitter/news collection and mapping program. Al Jazeera is using it for the latest stuff in Gaza.<BR/>http://feraljundi.com/2009/01/05/technology-ushahidi-and-mapping-the-reports-out-of-gaza/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-10360311840036946502009-01-11T00:21:00.000-05:002009-01-11T00:21:00.000-05:00Hi all, as always thanks for your comments.Gilad S...Hi all, as always thanks for your comments.<BR/><BR/>Gilad Shalit's kidnapping happened after Hamas won the Palestinian elections, so that while it was not height of the inter-Palestinian fighting there was a heightened Fatah-Hamas conflict and inter-organizational conflict did have a correlating with an increased likelihood of kidnapping.<BR/><BR/>While Hamas is a vicious organization, the connotations of calling them vermin is beneath us.<BR/><BR/>We can have a long (and fruitless) debate about the semantics of calling the group terrorists or not. But SOMA could be applied to any organization - but trying to figure out when groups might act violently is of particular interest at present. Regardless of my politics, I want to understand how Hamas operates and what triggers its behaviors.<BR/><BR/>As I mentioned before, I am not the technical guy on the project, the formal explanation is:<BR/><BR/>SOMA (Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents) is a formal, logical-statistical reasoning language within which we can express knowledge about the behaviors of a group of interest, and compile a set of rules in such a language into an "agent." Within SOMA, we can express rules about the probability that a given person or group will act a certain way in a given situation.<BR/><BR/>Feel free to bring specific questions about the system to me offline.Aaron Manneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-2519994014523002022009-01-10T01:10:00.000-05:002009-01-10T01:10:00.000-05:00There is something very faux about academics that ...There is something very faux about academics that posit their work as objective analysis yet use derogatory labels like ‘terrorist’ to identify their subjects.<BR/><BR/>You should remain politically neutral if you want to wear the academics cap to present your work.<BR/><BR/>If you take political sides – and it really doesn’t matter which side – and then attempt to present your work as ‘objective’ then you are being fraudulent. Your work, as in this case, becomes purely propaganda disguised as academia.Damian Lataanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06886295381135372084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-40336053579365724582009-01-09T23:14:00.000-05:002009-01-09T23:14:00.000-05:00Gilad Shalit was kidnapped June 2006, and the 'off...Gilad Shalit was kidnapped June 2006, and the 'official' civil war between Hamas and Fatah was June 2007. <BR/>How much of this model is based on formal behavioral analysis -- schedules of reinforcement, negative reinforcement for Israel, etc? The linked piece makes it sound pretty much correlational and logistical regression-based.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-48567012509660647842009-01-09T16:32:00.000-05:002009-01-09T16:32:00.000-05:00Yes,but how do we terminate the vermin? Israel nee...Yes,but how do we terminate the vermin? Israel needs help.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-17694908896846370612009-01-09T15:08:00.000-05:002009-01-09T15:08:00.000-05:00Let me confess, I am not the technical guy on the ...Let me confess, I am not the technical guy on the project. I think it is all magic. SOMA is an agent-based model, check the link embedded in the post, the papers we co-authored, and the LCCD site in general for more background.Aaron Manneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-10107972822142589162009-01-09T14:52:00.000-05:002009-01-09T14:52:00.000-05:00Aaron,What is the formulation of the model? That ...Aaron,<BR/><BR/>What is the formulation of the model? That is, have you designed a formal model of variables--like a regression--or are you using agent-based techniques.<BR/><BR/>I am very interested in learning more about SOMA, and would take your answers offline in e-mail.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com