tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-80284614999909430662024-02-07T17:16:50.844-05:00TerrorWonk<br>Mostly about terrorism, world affairs, a little computational modeling and big data, some political science, plus history, travel, philosophy and whatever else grabs me! Opinions strictly my own.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comBlogger399125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-56293725066461629552020-08-24T12:11:00.000-04:002020-08-24T12:11:58.609-04:00Data is the Story<p><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt;">In middle school English I remember we did a drama activity in which the class divided into groups. Each group wrote, produced, and performed a play. The point of the activity was that each part of the process – the writers, the actors, and the stage crew/promoters etc. was important to putting on a good play. I got it and when I talk to my friends in Hollywood, many of whom work on production (although I know a few writers as well) they emphasize how critical the sound engineer’s work (for example) is to making a decent movie. Conversely a bad sound engineer or video editor can absolutely ruin a movie. Many of these functions will go unnoticed – a prop-master has done a good job if the viewer never even thinks about the props because that they fit seamlessly into the story.</span><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">All well and good, but I didn’t buy it: because without a writer, you have nothing. Seeing a tremendous production of a Shakespeare play is a sublime experience. But reading a Shakespeare play is pretty great in and of itself. The same cannot be said about the other components of the play (or movie.) The writing is the engine, the essential thing.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Go figure that I aspired to be a writer…</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Now, in my data analytics adjacent professional world, this lesson has returned to me. AI/ML is all the rage these days. Yet, high-end analytics are useless without data. At the same time, with data, even simple analytics can be extremely useful and provide important insights. Mapping to the drama comparison: the data is the script, the analytics is the acting, and production is everything else – visualization, communication etc.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Analytics can play a critical role in bringing meaning from the data. Visualization and communication (the latter is my part of the business) are critical for making the findings interpretable to decision-makers and meaningful to the public. The importance of both of these elements should not be underplayed. But without data, there is nothing. I’ve been to meetings where potential users get very excited over a flashy visualization, not recognizing the dearth of substance beneath it.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimfGzRPyDKoOj6-D6GpH07Nep_FFvK7Hk7Tb6EA14unD22VtPPl7RZuttPIttB8LrqLldEdptb9dD88ep1gaeRxyCJvJAowSQDtI7eac5S8cYs_ejl7cy5rbgE7dAbKVJHvUBCgEbbB9Od/s1390/polonius-what-do-you-read-my-lord-hamlet-words-words-words-william-FEHCA2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1390" data-original-width="1300" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimfGzRPyDKoOj6-D6GpH07Nep_FFvK7Hk7Tb6EA14unD22VtPPl7RZuttPIttB8LrqLldEdptb9dD88ep1gaeRxyCJvJAowSQDtI7eac5S8cYs_ejl7cy5rbgE7dAbKVJHvUBCgEbbB9Od/w245-h262/polonius-what-do-you-read-my-lord-hamlet-words-words-words-william-FEHCA2.jpg" width="245" /></a></div>To people outside of this world, it should be understood that in many cases, the data on a particular issue or problem is not collected or is not collected consistently. There are a range of social and policy issues around this. We are seeing it now in the pandemic response, where data on COVID-19 cases is collected inconsistently. There are divergences in timing, delivery, data format, and a plethora of issues that complicate obtaining an accurate read on the national situation.<o:p></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><i>Caveat: This is not to fuel conspiracy theories that COVID-19 isn’t a big deal. It is. The data we have is imperfect but undeniable – millions have been infected and over 170,000 people have died, most needlessly. The point is more accurate data would enable more effective policy response: identifying points of origin, trajectory of spread, and more accurate projections of future outbreaks.<o:p></o:p></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">In many cases, what is called algorithmic bias is really a matter of data bias. The data was collected improperly or annotated and curated improperly. This is a vast issue. The way data is collected reflects institutional priorities and the way in which instances are categorized as types shapes what kinds of analytics can be run. Bad analytics can generate lousy findings from good data, just as a lousy actor can ruin a great scene. Glossy visualizations and smooth patter can sell weak conclusions (who hasn’t gone to a lousy movie because of a great looking trailer.) But if you don’t start with good data – that as much as possible reflects reality and takes into account the multiple facets of reality – you are unlikely to end up with quality results.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">This is hard to do, just like writing is hard: I complain about it constantly. But good writing and good data both share a quality of the real and can unlock deep truths.<o:p></o:p></p>Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-21332873567534649182020-08-11T15:04:00.005-04:002020-08-11T15:04:46.604-04:00Advice for Joe Biden's 2020 running mate in USA Today<p><b style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: #0e75e0; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16pt;">USA TODAY OPINION</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 26pt;">'The vice presidency is a good gig': Here's some advice for Joe Biden's 2020 running mate<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial; font-size: 8pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial;">Aaron Mannes, Opinion contributor</span></b><span style="color: #878787; font-family: Arial;"> Published 5:02 a.m. ET Aug. 2, 2020</span><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial;">https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/08/02/biden-vice-president-running-mate-history-advice-column/5547954002/<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><i><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14pt;">You didn’t become vice president just for future opportunities. You want to make a difference now. There’s good news and bad news.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Congratulations on being selected as Joe Biden’s running mate. If the polls hold, you’ll be the first female vice president of the United States. (Don’t take too much credit for the win, or blame if you lose. <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/election-2016-vice-president-selection-matters-less-than-you-think-213805"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">Research</span></a> shows that the vice presidential candidate doesn’t make much difference.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">The vice presidency is a good gig. It comes with a plane, a nice house and lots of high-profile appearances. It provides a good chance of becoming president. Of the 48 vice presidents, 14 have become president (15, if Biden is elected). Again, if Biden is elected then in the past 14 presidential elections, three vice presidents have been elected president (Nixon, Bush and Biden) and two others came very close (Humphrey and Gore).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">But you didn’t become vice president just for future opportunities. You want to make a difference now. There’s good news and bad news. Good news, first.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Helvetica;">Good news for the potential next VP<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">In 1976, Democratic presidential nominee Jimmy Carter revolutionized the vice presidency. Historically, the office was mostly the butt of jokes, what historian <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1974/05/is-the-vice-presidency-necessary/305732/"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.</span></a> called a constitutional "appendix.” Carter viewed this as waste. The former Georgia governor chose Walter Mondale, a respected Democratic senator from Minnesota, for their personal and political compatibility. This was an innovation in its own right — previous presidential nominees hadn’t given it much thought. Carter ensured his vice president would have access to the president and the White House policy process. This included a weekly private lunch with the president and entrée for the vice president and his staff to White House meetings and paper flow at every level. Most important was giving Mondale a <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/generic/Leaders_Lecture_Series_Mondale.htm#:~:text=Fritz%20Mondale%20was%20the%20first%20Vice%20President%20to,partner%22%20is%20how%20President%20Carter%20described%20their%20relationship."><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">West Wing office</span></a>. In the White House things happen on the fly, but unlike his predecessors, Mondale could look in on the national security adviser or chief of staff — whose offices are right next door, or see the president in the Oval Office down the hall.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">These vice presidential perquisites have continued and expanded. Mondale’s chief of staff was also made a member of the White House staff, giving him access to the White House. By 2016, the final full year of Biden’s vice presidency under President Barack Obama, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-PLUMBOOK-2016/pdf/GPO-PLUMBOOK-2016.pdf"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">eight people from his office</span></a> were also on the White House staff.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Biden, as a two-term vice president, chose you for the ticket because you are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-under-pressure-to-shatter-cement-ceiling-by-naming-a-black-woman-to-be-his-running-mate/2020/07/19/7dfb9dcc-c06f-11ea-9fdd-b7ac6b051dc8_story.html#:~:text=Joe%20Biden%20wants%20to%20be%20%E2%80%98simpatico%E2%80%99%20with%20his,reportedly%20on%20Biden%E2%80%99s%20list%20of%20potential%20running%20mates."><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">“simpatico.”</span></a> Biden won’t cut you out of the process, like President Richard Nixon did to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/why-the-vice-presidency-matters/492128/"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">Vice President Spiro Agnew</span></a>, who he despised. You will see the president often and know what’s going on in the White House.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">There’s stuff you should do to keep things this way. Presidents hate leaks. You can give the president unvarnished advice, even disagree with him, but do it privately. Stories of president-vice president disagreements will be bad for both of you. Don’t let your staff leak either. Dan Quayle didn’t have a great hand to play as vice president in President George H.W. Bush’s administration, but his staffers leaking White House dirt didn’t help. And when the president makes a decision, like it or not, publicly support it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Helvetica;">Bad news for Biden's VP candidate<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Now the bad news: Biden knows how to “president.” The expansion of the vice president’s role has coincided with a string of outsider presidents who came to office with little or no experience in D.C.—governors (and also Obama who had only been in the Senate for four years). They turned to their vice presidents when they faced new issues such as national security, and unfamiliar Washington institutions, like Congress.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Biden was vice president for eight years and a senator from Delaware for <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/us-politics/joe-biden"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">36 years</span></a>. What can you tell him about Congress or world affairs that he won’t already know? Further, Biden has plenty of experienced advisers. Outsider presidents have turned to the experienced staffers of their insider vice presidents. When incoming President Ronald Reagan saw his team needed more Washington experience, he turned to James Baker, campaign manager and close friend of his GOP primary rival-turned-vice president, George H.W. Bush. As White House Chief of Staff the uber-effective Baker played a critical role in making the Reagan Revolution a reality. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Serving an insider president puts you in a similar position to Dan Quayle, who found the job mostly fundraising and funerals.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">All is not hopeless. One presidential resource is finite: time. Find areas that are important, but the president lacks the time to address. Quayle did useful diplomacy in Latin America and Asia, where the president’s national security team — focused on Europe and the Middle East — didn’t have time. Alternately, the president may have an issue in which he is heavily invested and assigns you to reinforce this commitment. President Bill Clinton was deeply interested in Russia and assigned Vice President Al Gore to oversee a bilateral commission to strengthen those ties. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Unattached to any bureaucracy and with a unique convening power, vice presidents can be a force multiplier and bring focus to key issues. George H.W. Bush oversaw regulatory reform and a counter-terror task force. Besides several bilateral commissions, Gore ran the reinventing government initiative. Biden managed the stimulus spending for Obama. Biden will probably give you a few such assignments. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Biden is famously friendly, you’ll get along great with him. But that doesn’t mean that your efforts mesh politically with the White House, which is a big bureaucracy in its own right. Having some of your staffers in senior White House positions would be great, but unlikely. Encourage your staff to get close to their White House counterparts, and consider bringing experienced Biden staffers onto your team.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Your job is to help the president any way that you can. Everything you know about the president — what he’s worried about, what he needs, what he doesn’t know that he should — can help you help him.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Congratulations and good luck. We all are wishing you every success — we’re all counting on you.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Aaron Mannes is a lecturer at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. He wrote his dissertation on vice presidential influence. Follow him on Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/awmannes"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">@awmannes</span></a></span></i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-83483207573952845512020-07-05T20:42:00.003-04:002020-07-05T20:42:39.189-04:00Independence Day: The Morning After<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggI-6r_6yET-nSWKP8Ge5DhTkR8O44G6DDbjMfBrZ1tovLe8b3Srah6_Cv6I5U4uWNZFYJSPiD8HuQOJCmtB81epPj4zwkTQP0uGLjGlWS0hGhAaZVAH3iHCjJ-8O5nOI__nmgGE0J0EKk/s1600/IMG-2337.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggI-6r_6yET-nSWKP8Ge5DhTkR8O44G6DDbjMfBrZ1tovLe8b3Srah6_Cv6I5U4uWNZFYJSPiD8HuQOJCmtB81epPj4zwkTQP0uGLjGlWS0hGhAaZVAH3iHCjJ-8O5nOI__nmgGE0J0EKk/s320/IMG-2337.JPG" width="240" /></a><i><span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman";">We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman";">Yesterday we celebrated Independence Day. Today we woke up to a complicated, messy reality. The ideals of the United States of America, so eloquently expressed in the Declaration of Independence, are inspiring. But we see, almost constantly, how we fail to live up to them. The national failure of COVID-19 has exposed so many ways in which the United States is failing to secure the inalienable rights of the American people. From poor public health infrastructure to the weakened social safety net – the rest of the economically developed world has managed the pandemic (at high cost to be sure) and is ready to go back to business. The United States is wallowing in an ongoing and at least to some extent avoidable crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman";">There are other failures, beyond those linked to COVID-19. The criminal justice system, institutional racism and sexism, and the way in which the financial industry preys upon those who have the least are just a few of the issues highlighted in recent years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman";">We are in an era of what <a href="https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1111882184">Samuel Huntington called Creedal Passion</a> in which the American people seek to <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2018/07/july-4th-special-post-reckoning.html">bring American reality into alignment with our core values – our Creed</a>. These are periods of enormous ferment and tumult – like the Sixties or the Progressive Era. In such times, the nation’s history comes under scrutiny. </span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman";">We have never lived up to our values. Building the United States involved massive crimes against the Native Americans, the slavery of African-Americans, and other terrible depredations. Reputed golden ages – such as the Fifties were built on systematic repression of African-Americans, women were constrained in their choices, while corporations were able to harm the environment and consumers with limited oversight.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman";">But this bleak view is not completely fair. Our values are not just a sham. We do in fact strive for them. It took too long, but slavery was destroyed. It took too long, but women received the right vote. The United States has accepted immigrants from around the world and allowed them to enjoy life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness in a way they could not in their nation of origin.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman";">I have a personal stake in this. My people were at the bottom rung of the latter across Europe for over a millennium. <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-note-of-hope-on-anti-semitism-in.html">Here in the United States we have prospered, been accepted, and have been safe in a way unprecedented in our long history.</a> I love this country for what it has meant for me, my family, and so very many. I want all Americans (and ultimately all people) to enjoy their inalienable rights.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Times New Roman";">There is much to be done.</span><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-84557628237513155412019-08-11T20:59:00.000-04:002019-08-11T20:59:09.798-04:00A Note of Hope on Anti-Semitism in AmericaToday is Tisha B'Av, the saddest day in the Jewish year. It is the day we remember the destruction of the ancient temples. It is a day of mourning, fasting, and contemplation. As it ends however, it turns to a message of hope, that what was lost will be rebuilt and renewed.<br />
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As it is nearly over, let me offer a message of hope.<br />
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I too am horrified by the seemingly endless cycle of massacres, and sadly, American Jews have been an all too frequent target. The massacre at the <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2018/10/27/Police-responding-to-incident-in-Squirrel-Hill/stories/201810270069">Pittsburgh synagogue was the deadliest attack on Jews in American history</a> and has since been followed by shootings at synagogues in <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/04/28/california-synagouge-shooting/3606958002/">San Diego</a> and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/police-man-hurt-shooting-synagogue-miami-64628702">Miami</a>.<br />
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Where's the hope?<br />
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At synagogue, after one of these incidents, the rabbi asked for thoughts. When the room was silent, I offered this:<br />
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None of us have any illusions that anti-Semites are out there and want our blood. But they are a fringe. Unlike so many times in our history, there are no mobs gathering the streets calling for our blood. And the government is not complicit, it is absolutely opposed. When anti-Semitic incidents occur, does anyone doubt that the police are committed to protecting us? When an incident occurred here, and the FBI became involved, was there any question that they were not investigating diligently? When incidents occur, do our neighbors say - like they may have said in Germany or Poland (where our ancestors fled) - "Well, Jews, what can you expect?"</blockquote>
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The answer is: No. I am sad that we have felt the need to hire a policeman to sit outside our synagogue on Shabbat. But I do not doubt that he will do his uttermost to protect us. If something did happen, our neighbors, of every faith or none would be here to support us. Our political leaders would condemn it vehemently.</blockquote>
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I am horrified by the violence, like all of you, but I am still heartened, that in this country, we are not alone.</blockquote>
That is my message of hope. For those observing, I hope you had a meaningful fast.<br />
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Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-51869995114543843572018-10-24T21:34:00.004-04:002018-10-27T19:38:26.172-04:00Political Violence in an Age of Creedal Passion<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">My regular readers and pretty much everyone I talk to knows that I am trying to <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2018/07/july-4th-special-post-reckoning.html">write about some deep cycles in U.S. history that are shaping our current political environment</a>. I want it to be a book, and am writing academic papers for various conferences in an effort to make it happen.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">To that end, I submitted a paper entitled <i>Political Violence in an Age of Creedal Passion </i>to the <a href="https://spsa.net/annual-meeting/2019-90th-annual-spsa-conference/">Southern Political Science Association</a>. The abstract is as follows:</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This paper will explore patterns of political violence during periods of Creedal Passion, and how this type of violence might manifest in the coming decade. In “American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony,” Samuel Huntington identified the second and third decades of the 21st century as a period of Creedal Passion in which the American people seek to bridge the gap between their institutions and their ideals. The previous periods of Creedal Passion include the American Revolution, the Jacksonian Era, and the Progressive Era, and most recently the Sixties and Seventies. The present day evinces the characteristics of these eras including public opposition to hierarchies and concentrations, questioning traditional sources of authority, and a focus on long-standing sources of social inequality. </span></span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Each of these eras was accompanied by significant political violence, from the outright revolt against British rule, to the rioting during the Jacksonian Era, the anarchists of the Progressive Era, and the leftist extremism that accompanied the Sixties and Seventies. These eras were not necessarily more violent than other epochs in U.S. history, however the political violence was a manifestation of Creedal Passion. This paper will examine each of these eras and to understand how political violence emerged from and interacted with the broader reform movements and with society at large during eras of Creedal Passion. The paper will then apply these insights to better understand political violence in the United State today.</span></span></blockquote>
There has been significant violence in our current era of Creedal Passion already. Much has been on the political right, although there have been notable incidents of political violence on the left as well. There have also been a proliferation of just strange events like the Comet Pizza attack. This was not, strictly speaking, a political event (although it was linked to outrageous political rumors). But it reflects the general discontent and energy that characterizes eras of Creedal Passion.<br />
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The attempted bombings of former presidents and other politicians is something new. Eras of Creedal Passion have, sadly, featured assassinations of political leaders. The first assassination attempt on a president was against Andrew Jackson. The man was mentally ill, but again, there was a madness in the air as well. The Jacksonian Era also saw the sudden rise of the anti-Masonic party, after Masons murdered a man who threatened to reveal their secret rites.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrZwJ1XLjo7ZqrrQw2rpUqKP4uaHOUhp6gun036A-jf_08DFzizzQj_Equ1S_PZuQz2f-IGMkT3BXriK4aaWd1oqSIe7jWs-QT1OGXjW6vWSdFsa2aS-TWeGJnb4yL0EovxkC2GajpaZ93/s1600/John_F_Kennedy_eternal_flame_after_2013_upgrade_-_2013-05-30.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="1600" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrZwJ1XLjo7ZqrrQw2rpUqKP4uaHOUhp6gun036A-jf_08DFzizzQj_Equ1S_PZuQz2f-IGMkT3BXriK4aaWd1oqSIe7jWs-QT1OGXjW6vWSdFsa2aS-TWeGJnb4yL0EovxkC2GajpaZ93/s320/John_F_Kennedy_eternal_flame_after_2013_upgrade_-_2013-05-30.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Eternal Flame at JFK's Grave, <a href="https://www.blogger.com/By%20Tim%20Evanson%20-%20https://www.flickr.com/photos/23165290@N00/8943708503/,%20CC%20BY-SA%202.0,%20https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26477712">photo by Tim Evanson</a></td></tr>
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In the Progressive Era, William McKinley was assassinated and Theodore Roosevelt was only saved by his extremely long speech folded in his pocket. The Sixties saw a string of assassinations: JFK, RFK, and Martin Luther King.<br />
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It is worth remembering and putting things into perspective on this awful day. In the 1960s massive urban riots swept through American cities. In the Progressive Era, violent bloody confrontations between labor and business. We aren't there - and I don't think we'll get there. But sadly, things will get crazier. I'm trying to figure out how.<br />
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<i>UPDATES: Events keep overtaking me. Now, we have the horrific news from Pittsburgh, where a monster with a gun committed the worst act of anti-Semitism in U.S. history. I love this country, it has been amazing for the Jewish people (my people!) I am heartsick, but I am also heartened that the people of Pittsburgh - and almost everyone - are rallying around their neighbors.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>I would also say that both in responding to the bombings and the synagogue shootings, our law enforcement agencies have acted with utter professionalism. There is still a commitment to rule of law in this country.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>I ended the initial post (above) saying things are not as bad as they were in previous eras of Creedal Passion - but that the madness we are in is nowhere near over. I stand by that.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>I don't have any hot-takes, but I'll make this observation. At some point some forms of serious gun control will be passed. The NRA has been winning battles for a very long time. Eventually it will lose - possibly soon. This will be to the good. There is simply no way to ignore the simple reality that access to firearms enables individuals and small groups to do absolutely terrible things.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>However, the forces of Creedal Passion cut in many different directions - it is not simply left or right. For some Americans gun control threatens a sacred right. Most gun owners are law abiding, and they may grumble, but they will obey the law. For some however this gun control will be an enormous offense and lead them to more radical positions - and yes - to violence.</i><br />
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<i>The only way out of this is through.</i>Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-43500176188737519042018-10-22T21:30:00.001-04:002018-10-22T21:30:32.038-04:00Could Saudi Arabia Collapse?<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="b3ebv" data-offset-key="8i1vo-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
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<span data-offset-key="8i1vo-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">I used to do Middle East. Not so much anymore. I haven't followed the ins and outs of the Saudi royals either. That's its own real world. If you are interested, I can send you pointers to people who know this stuff well.</span></div>
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<span data-offset-key="7c7vn-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">But, I do know this: every single Arab country, without exception, is built on sand. I don't mean this literally (although it seems true in many cases.) Rather, I mean that the societies are fragile, they are run by unpopular dictators, and their economies do not meet the needs of their people. All of these states (as we saw in the Arab Spring) were dry tinder waiting for a match.</span></div>
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<span data-offset-key="3peab-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">I write this thinking that we need to consider seriously that the Jamal Kashoggi affair could bring down the Saudi government and replace it with a terrible civil war. The Saudis themselves are clearly concerned about this.</span></div>
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<span data-offset-key="1sqse-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">Smart Middle East hands, who may not like the Saudis much, will probably say we use this carefully push them towards reform - but we don't want to dump them. They are valuable allies (if morally dubious ones, but hey, welcome to the Middle East.) I don't like the Saudis much either. But, this is probably the smart play.</span></div>
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<span data-offset-key="an5b8-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">Putting aside this administration's competence to pull of the smart play, things can get out of hand. The opprobrium heading towards the Saudis can set a serious set of cascading events into motion. The Saudi regime cannot take care of itself. It relies heavily on foreign technical support. What happens when no one wants to provide that support because of public pressure? When the Saudi people lose confidence in their corrupt dictatorial regime, they are done for.</span></div>
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<span data-offset-key="1okb4-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;">I'm not saying that this WILL happen. They've weathered a lot so far. But right now, nothing is impossible.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix0QwXwqDFiCdwmSIWNRoxzVbKf8nn3jgTcIjCtxL8hqtiSii3kr92E3QUsfUKRZn4csd80Pl4tKUgt3ew4zoUUF04bW1TmcTugRbyx5hRRaSq4id6MXDSGPcaPUG2M5H8WYN0thZZ-Q6O/s1600/NightWatchSyria.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="575" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix0QwXwqDFiCdwmSIWNRoxzVbKf8nn3jgTcIjCtxL8hqtiSii3kr92E3QUsfUKRZn4csd80Pl4tKUgt3ew4zoUUF04bW1TmcTugRbyx5hRRaSq4id6MXDSGPcaPUG2M5H8WYN0thZZ-Q6O/s640/NightWatchSyria.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Syria, The Night Watch by Briton Riviere (1840-1920), painted in 1880. A favorite of mine at the wonderful Walters Art Museum in Baltimore.</td></tr>
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Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-25802957475490728992018-09-18T09:16:00.000-04:002018-09-18T11:09:39.779-04:00Listening to Women, Learning Empathy<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwOCH0jCK0UK3pWQi5hSJLlKM8EXQ6c22QyzEbrM_lDEZefl7zkN82deP0SLgYzs6zpUPj4GlmQapGPu3AlJM_6evgMqP7Tb3DpYW74MP45H5qfHG7U3oBlvQTM_8qBIMkPJkMzNB9ER0E/s1600/white-center.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="949" data-original-width="645" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwOCH0jCK0UK3pWQi5hSJLlKM8EXQ6c22QyzEbrM_lDEZefl7zkN82deP0SLgYzs6zpUPj4GlmQapGPu3AlJM_6evgMqP7Tb3DpYW74MP45H5qfHG7U3oBlvQTM_8qBIMkPJkMzNB9ER0E/s400/white-center.jpg" width="270" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Somehow this Rothko captures the mood.</td></tr>
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I am not writing this to advertise myself as some wonderful "woke" guy who really gets all of the indignities and awfulness that women suffer. My hope here is to share my path to at least a glimmer of empathy in the hope that it will help and inform other well-meaning men and boys to also be understanding and better.<br />
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So I'm writing about me, but it isn't about me, I'm just trying to set the stage.<br />
<br />
First, two decades ago, when the Monica Lewinsky scandal was <u>the big news</u> I worked in a small office with two women. When we began discussing current affairs I made the argument that perhaps Ms. Lewinsky was just a tiny bit responsible for what had happened.<br />
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My colleagues rounded on me. They adamantly stated that this was a situation between a powerful man and a powerless woman, it was not her fault. I dropped my argument because a light went off in my head - <i>both of my colleagues had been in a comparable situation!</i><br />
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And if that were true, it means that many - most - women have also been in a comparable situation. This meant that most women had been ensnared in a fraught, sexualized, if not sexual, relationship with a more powerful man.<br />
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This is on top of the constant harassment and judgment to which women are also subject. I haven't surveyed women I know to find out how true this is. But between listening to my wife and just paying attention - it's pretty clear how pervasive these situations are. Women worry about situations to which I would not give a second thought (such as whether an Uber ride in a strange city could become an assault.)<br />
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This was the beginning of a great sympathy towards women. I don't think I was ever a <i>bad </i>guy, I was nice and courteous. But this first realization helped me develop a sense of compassion about what women have to go through - but not empathy, I couldn't claim to truly grasp their experience.<br />
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Now, with the questions around Kavanaugh's behavior - his alleged attempted rape - my sympathy has deepened. Reading <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/09/me-too/570520/">Caitlin Flanagan's article</a> on a similar incident that happened to her as a teenager is a reminder that huge numbers of women have had a similar experience of physical assault. Even more women were in bad situations that could have become an assault, but that they somehow evaded. Let's be very clear, that still leaves a scar. The fact that rape or assault did not occur does not mean that nothing happened or that the experience was not terrible and frightening.<br />
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Anyone who thinks that the outpouring of women supporting Dr. Ford is cynical politics is fooling themselves. They believe her because they have been there.<br />
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<b>A Mile in Another's Shoes</b><br />
Sympathy is generally understood as compassion towards, while empathy is understanding another's situation - putting yourself in their shoes. Empathy is harder. Science fiction writer Jonathan Scalzi, in an <a href="https://whatever.scalzi.com/2012/05/15/straight-white-male-the-lowest-difficulty-setting-there-is/">epic blog post wrote </a>that if life were a video game: "'Straight White Male is the lowest difficulty setting there is."<br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This means that the default behaviors for almost all the non-player characters in the game are easier on you than they would be otherwise. The default barriers for completions of quests are lower. Your leveling-up thresholds come more quickly. You automatically gain entry to some parts of the map that others have to work for. The game is easier to play, automatically, and when you need help, by default it’s easier to get.</span></span></blockquote>
This straight white male does not always understand what those unlike myself have to go through. But I'm trying. To show how I got there, I need to talk about myself a little.<br />
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<b>A Glimmer of Empathy</b><br />
When I was a kid I was bullied, a lot. I was an awkward, strange, nerdy kid. This happened at school, in my neighborhood, (oddly) at Hebrew school, even at (can you imagine) a summer program for gifted and talented kids. That's right, I was so nerdy that other nerds picked on me. I was insulted and taunted. I was pushed around.<br />
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I was never really beaten up. I took steps to get out when the situation got threatening. It was often humiliating. But I was weak and uncoordinated. Attempts at violence were not going to go well for me. On TV, the victim slugs the bully in the face. And it turns out the bully was just a coward. Maybe so, but I'm not sure it would have worked out so well. In my experience, the bully was just looking for an excuse. Also, lots of times the bully had a bunch of friends. There was no honor, they would have piled on and beaten the crap out of me.<br />
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I have a great life now. None of this should matter. But I can still get mad about these incidents from three or four decades ago - in an instant. I still wake up at night with elaborate revenge fantasies.<br />
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<i>But this is not about me. </i><br />
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What I dealt with was chump change, small potatoes compared to an attempted rape. Thinking about my own open wound, made me realize just how massive the hurt that must be left by a sexual assault.<br />
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I don't want to equate my being pushed around at the playground with an attempted rape. It is not, not even close.<br />
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<i>Update - A wise friend wrote to me:</i><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>I'd add here a caution of false equivalency. You left the playground/summer school--women must be vigilant wherever they are, every moment of their lives. The threat never stops. </i><i>One is a fixed incident in time and space and the other is persistent through time and space.</i> </blockquote>
So if I consider my still festering anger and pain, and then try to imagine it extended many orders of magnitude into multiple dimensions, then maybe I have glimpsed just a shadow of what most women are carrying with them. The fact that despite these deep wounds, women carry on - raise kids, work jobs, write articles and PhD dissertations - is simply amazing.<br />
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That is the beginning of empathy.<br />
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Try it and extend it to everyone - people of color, LGBTQ, and the disabled.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-69886799473363233312018-07-22T18:53:00.000-04:002018-07-22T20:53:33.844-04:00Tisha B'Av and the Ruins of Rome<br />
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As Tisha B'Av winds down, my thoughts return to my recent visit to Rome (and food, Tisha B'Av is a fast day and I'm really hungry.)<br />
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I've been meaning to write up my visit, it was wonderful. I saw splendid things, met interesting people, tasted delicious food, and had lots of gelato. But, in the spirit of the day - which is the saddest day in the Jewish calendar, remembering the destruction of the ancient Temple by the Babylonians AND the Romans - this will be more somber. It will expand on my <a href="https://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2016/08/mourning-in-america-tisha-bav-thoughts.html">Tisha B'Av post from two years ago.</a><br />
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I love ancient ruins. As a graduate of St. John's College and a general fan of history, antiquity fascinates me. Yet, my visit to the great ruins of Rome, centered around the Forum, was delayed until nearly the end of my trip. Between meetings and tours I had booked, my time with the ruins was limited to my last afternoon. And I took a nap. Still, the Forum is open late, until 730, so when I got up in mid-afternoon I had plenty of time.<br />
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The ruins of Rome have a particular fascination for me, because I play a game called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caesar_(video_game)">Caesar</a>. It is a city-building game - like Sim City - but set in ancient Rome. So I know a bit about Roman architecture and urban development. As I wandered around the city I hummed the music from the game. (FYI - I haven't played the game in years, <a href="https://forfathersonly.blogspot.com/2012/11/thankfully-burgled.html">the ancient laptop I used for it was stolen</a>.)<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPeuvt3R5FDXUfA5O4OWBxd4dB_McF-Seco8LT7HHhv3lk4V7V_raqeKy1a5ai13yIwuM3-H5h-e-MRd5mm7dVIU791TZJB3N1rvt1W2iJIA86Bg084XpnrCG8kjSATL_tUShqnQ7960jc/s1600/IMG_9520.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPeuvt3R5FDXUfA5O4OWBxd4dB_McF-Seco8LT7HHhv3lk4V7V_raqeKy1a5ai13yIwuM3-H5h-e-MRd5mm7dVIU791TZJB3N1rvt1W2iJIA86Bg084XpnrCG8kjSATL_tUShqnQ7960jc/s320/IMG_9520.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Circus Maximus!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I had earlier visited the <a href="https://www.vicuscaprarius.com/en/">City of Water</a>, a lesser known archaeological site (Rome is crawling with them) in which construction had discovered an an insula (a tenement) that was rebuilt in the 4th century as a luxurious domus. This is exactly what happened in Caesar!!!<br />
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Later a walked along the Circus Maximus, the site of the great chariot races. Now it is a big empty field, but in the game, if you built one you were pretty close to winning the game!<br />
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<b>A Funny Thing Happened at the Forum</b><br />
I set off the for Forum, excited thinking I had saved the best for last. But, after stops for gelato and quick looks at the many other ruins, when I arrived at the Forum they were still open but not providing the audioguide. The Forum was closing "soon." The official close time was still hours away...<br />
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I downloaded a different audioguide and began exploring. But when I went in one direction I was instructed it was closed as the Forum would be closing soon. I got perturbed, started walking, and found myself on Palatine Hill.<br />
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The Forum was the heart of ancient Rome, while Palatine Hill overlooks it. It was the seat of the Imperial Palace. Admission to one grants admission to the other, but once one site is exited, you cannot re-enter it.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9RLgXwazCS_vHLreCTQnzz_WuBi3ScO8izaqG2e0a0xy8Kz-ErIDXvyzV3y2be4VZkrQaqFuzLjCAr-Pkn2pw01NnbKRGD5XO8KCHkTCt5xSJPMsxQuejCf6Y5LxpsrClni5jijYiIxGN/s1600/IMG_9487.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9RLgXwazCS_vHLreCTQnzz_WuBi3ScO8izaqG2e0a0xy8Kz-ErIDXvyzV3y2be4VZkrQaqFuzLjCAr-Pkn2pw01NnbKRGD5XO8KCHkTCt5xSJPMsxQuejCf6Y5LxpsrClni5jijYiIxGN/s320/IMG_9487.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ruins on Palatine Hill</td></tr>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivDwnste4E40kZxVQ2uYBavfKvy_FTuRKxNScjn6IJqsbxZEDIE6yV2EGuFdOaiT6lOuPB048GQ_5LpkRR078KpJ2TdhwAW8clI7G1IxiyteUzcAeLDOP0h5FJ6QHFDUZGSoc596vkv5pU/s1600/IMG_9479.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivDwnste4E40kZxVQ2uYBavfKvy_FTuRKxNScjn6IJqsbxZEDIE6yV2EGuFdOaiT6lOuPB048GQ_5LpkRR078KpJ2TdhwAW8clI7G1IxiyteUzcAeLDOP0h5FJ6QHFDUZGSoc596vkv5pU/s200/IMG_9479.JPG" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hints of past glories</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivQW3XtWAT7uVfAMu_YN0hwt9C89aPbMgRIMAhAcVos7wlqnFQ7lS4E-wkU8D6jNxtiaRwbwj41ox0koX3LCNp4y05giVTbNNieF-q8ZnrJxldAXfBh2MyVKR8ZmyVYGpgXhPIjYUMuq8U/s1600/IMG_9483.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="480" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivQW3XtWAT7uVfAMu_YN0hwt9C89aPbMgRIMAhAcVos7wlqnFQ7lS4E-wkU8D6jNxtiaRwbwj41ox0koX3LCNp4y05giVTbNNieF-q8ZnrJxldAXfBh2MyVKR8ZmyVYGpgXhPIjYUMuq8U/s200/IMG_9483.JPG" width="150" /></a>So I explored Palatine Hill. It was mostly remains of brick walls - with terrific views of Rome, the Forum, and the nearby Colosseum. The scale of the Imperial ruins are impressive, but there are only the faintest hints of its past grandeur. A piece of marble column here and a fragment of a mosaic there.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8HS5bIMv7KKsiJVhJmcyQjby3ey9Eu3maiC6dFTgDBh4pw2YNoZX3omHjpG_8E7rJ72jPgvFH7U78Yhyv7mG75BecrEAKYXFMsxBZgA-gmUsk7eSmH1UzxcHnP0ha-qa8t5_4_JTkqLKZ/s1600/IMG_9490.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="489" data-original-width="640" height="489" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8HS5bIMv7KKsiJVhJmcyQjby3ey9Eu3maiC6dFTgDBh4pw2YNoZX3omHjpG_8E7rJ72jPgvFH7U78Yhyv7mG75BecrEAKYXFMsxBZgA-gmUsk7eSmH1UzxcHnP0ha-qa8t5_4_JTkqLKZ/s640/IMG_9490.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Forum - seen from Palatine Hill</td></tr>
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Somewhere around 630-645 (well before 730) I was definitively shooed out. On exiting the site, one comes to the Arch of Titus. Built to commemorate the Emperor Titus' conquest of ancient Palestine it include the image of the Great Menorah from the Holy Temple in Jerusalem being paraded through the streets of Rome. This sacred relic was reduced to war booty.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4GImIu2PlxjCiSq3c9mn4qyrxhIF5Bo7aQ75RZ6MPVtMdHK8_ihNdlIHgtqyTfYjFEgb0KARHWtMsHWWR6oSztpHSH8-QOXEOzBVHHhfAaSCFjTAMr5upGFQc-1oQwuEum-JvTHGyUYiI/s1600/IMG_9509.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4GImIu2PlxjCiSq3c9mn4qyrxhIF5Bo7aQ75RZ6MPVtMdHK8_ihNdlIHgtqyTfYjFEgb0KARHWtMsHWWR6oSztpHSH8-QOXEOzBVHHhfAaSCFjTAMr5upGFQc-1oQwuEum-JvTHGyUYiI/s320/IMG_9509.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Colosseum: A Temple to Cruelty</td></tr>
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Just beyond the Forum was the Colosseum. It is a remarkable building. It was closed but I walked around outside. I was a touch disappointed from not really getting to see the Forum. I learned that Titus had build the Colosseum with the spoils taken from Jerusalem. The gladiatorial games in which people fought one another or killed animals are abhorrent to Judaism (and to me).<br />
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It brought the day into perspective. Palatine Hill made sense. The palace of the most powerful man in the classical world was, in mere centuries, reduced to piles of bricks. Rome became a swampy backwater for centuries. Yet we - the Jewish people - are still here. This is not celebratory. I am not glad Rome fell, I do not revel in the sufferings of others. Rather it is a reminder of the vast tides of time and history, and of those things that truly keep us afloat.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB8HMC3-rOKlVJvCw1zxQ85xO9mV3cW-eCyQT2MhViMBnLTbqSXXjF5sjMCpnQsoVvI5rFytRm1Lqz_WGukRbVu0Z0Ted_gE_wsvRfa589U_myeIFJTvEuCH6FUl7o0UaaBlnEuA7WEYmu/s1600/IMG_9472.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB8HMC3-rOKlVJvCw1zxQ85xO9mV3cW-eCyQT2MhViMBnLTbqSXXjF5sjMCpnQsoVvI5rFytRm1Lqz_WGukRbVu0Z0Ted_gE_wsvRfa589U_myeIFJTvEuCH6FUl7o0UaaBlnEuA7WEYmu/s640/IMG_9472.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Great Menorah depicted on the Arch of Titus - the Jewish people proved to be more than our things</td></tr>
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<br />Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-18239300759062545622018-05-28T17:45:00.001-04:002018-05-28T22:15:22.571-04:00Memorial Day Thoughts: No New Civil WarSuddenly everyone on them Twitters is talking about a coming civil war, based primarily on this <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/07/will-we-have-a-2nd-civil-war-you-tell-me/">expert assessment that is umm... meaningless.</a><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcNI1ptCJUL_VPMTkx2YCJrPIhrk2m8ixsuxG_ZlaQATtp3aOUOirxer8_IRDKW0k2MfaVEoUVMdeMzg7VaHnwUKThCZThITF-wfO0q_FqT032j3Cs5sbyjV0SLPByYEqe3Y97TLFWmBEj/s1600/IMG_9041.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcNI1ptCJUL_VPMTkx2YCJrPIhrk2m8ixsuxG_ZlaQATtp3aOUOirxer8_IRDKW0k2MfaVEoUVMdeMzg7VaHnwUKThCZThITF-wfO0q_FqT032j3Cs5sbyjV0SLPByYEqe3Y97TLFWmBEj/s320/IMG_9041.JPG" width="320" /></a>Memorial Day was, of course, started to honor the dead of the Civil War. It was established in great part due to the efforts of <a href="https://armyhistory.org/general-john-a-logan-memorial-day-founder/">John Logan, a truly great American</a>. He was a citizen-soldier, a war hero, and an accomplished politician. He founded the Grand Army of the Republic, a veterans group, after the Civil War and as a politician tirelessly advocated for the rights for freed slaves. I work near Logan Circle, where his Washington home stands and where there is an impressive monument to him. (He also ran for vice president.)<br />
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The deaths in the Civil War are hard for us to comprehend. Fully half of all of the Americans killed in war where in that conflict. Over 600,000 Americans died, from a population base one-tenth of todays. A new Civil War on such a scale would take six million lives. It would bring unfathomable horrors.<br />
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It was faced with the aftermath of these enormous losses, that Memorial Day (originally Decoration Day) was established.<br />
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We are nowhere near this. Not even close. (There are political scientists who specialize in Civil War who could, undoubtedly explain through comparative analysis why the U.S. is not heading into Civil War.)<br />
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The Civil War occurred because there was a massive, unconscionable crime that was irreconcilable with the core values of the American people. There were also powerful vested interests that would not compromise on the issue. The economy of the South relied on slavery - at least for the region's elites.<br />
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Things feel and in many ways are awful now. But not Civil War awful. This is not to lessen the cruelties that are currently pervasive in our society. The monstrous policies towards migrants, the continuing institutional racism, and the growing income inequality leading to mass immiseration. But how is a Civil War appropriate or necessary to rectify this? Against and between whom?<br />
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One of the things that spurred this talk of Civil War was the August 2017 neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville, VA. It was, of course, distressing and terrible to see Nazis marching in mass and the president's mealy mouthed response only contributed to the feeling that our nation might break. But what has happened since? <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/richard-spencer-was-supposed-to-lead-the-alt-right-to-victory-now-hes-begging-for-money">Many alt-right groups - under law enforcement pressure - began to implode and their leader is now begging for funds - without much success. </a><br />
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None of this is to say that things are going swimmingly in these here United States. By all means we should exert every effort to try to right ourselves as a nation. But the clear and vast injustice simply does not exist.<br />
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<b>Political Violence in a Period of Creedal Passion</b><br />
Interestingly, the original post that sparked this conversation specifically said, that they weren't really thinking about a full on war. The <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/07/will-we-have-a-2nd-civil-war-you-tell-me/">post author wrote</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Definition: By “civil war,” I don’t necessarily mean set-piece battles and Pickett’s Charge. I do mean widespread political violence with parallel (though not necessarily connected) efforts to reject current political authority in certain legal domains or physical spaces.</span></blockquote>
That is another story entirely and yes, that is going to happen. We are in a period of creedal passion, in which we try to remake ourselves in line with out values. <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674030213&content=toc">Outlined by Samuel Huntington, periods of Creedal Passion</a> are characterized by broad questioning of authority, in which privilege and hierarchy comes under attack, and even potential violation of norms comes under attack.<br />
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The last round was the 1960s, which had a bit of political violence.<br />
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There are numerous communities within the U.S. which feel that the nation is headed the wrong way and might turn to violence. We've seen it from the "alt-right" and there is certainly potential from the truly <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/sovereign-citizens-movement">massive sovereign citizens movement</a>. I would not discount the potential of violence from other vectors as well. The emotions stirred up in periods of creedal passion are powerful, and when that happens the disturbed radicals may feel that the wind is at their back.<br />
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Also, I believe that new gun control measures are coming. The NRA has won politically for a long time. But nothing is permanent. When those measures come, the vast majority of American gun owners will accept them. A few won't.<br />
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None of this is a true Civil War, and frankly all of this violence in total will be a fraction of the appalling level of criminal violence our society already tolerates. <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2018/05/technology-risk-and-facebooks-dating.html">But of course political violence, particularly if it has a spectacular element, has a way of resonating in the public imagination.</a><br />
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And therein lies the danger, not of secession. But rather that low-level violence further degrades trust, perhaps on a scale that it cannot be repaired.<br />
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Perhaps in the context Memorial Day is more important than ever as we focus on our deepest beliefs and how much so many have sacrificed for them.<br />
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<i>Update: I just want to clarify this civil war thing. What if President Donny Two-Scoops is impeached. What then? Could that trigger a civil war? Seriously, Alabama (yea, I'm talking to you) would you secede for this guy? Would that make sense? </i><br />
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<i>I remember during the 2000 election imbroglio reading the Egyptian press. They were convinced the U.S. was on the verge of a Civil War. But really, who would strap on weapons for Al Gore or George W. Bush. I think now is the same.</i><br />
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<i>Political violence, sadly, yes. Civil war, no.</i><br />
<br />Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-73704653657217538312018-05-02T22:59:00.000-04:002018-05-02T22:59:01.440-04:00Technology, Risk and Facebook's Dating ServiceFacebook, thanks for providing the perfect demonstration of <a href="https://conferences.law.stanford.edu/werobot/wp-content/uploads/sites/47/2018/02/RobotsRiskComFinal-1.pdf">my recent paper on risk communication and technology</a>, presented at <a href="https://conferences.law.stanford.edu/werobot/">WeRobot2018</a>. In <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/technology/facebook-dating-tinder-match.html">starting a new dating service</a>, Facebook shows exactly the cluelessness that I worried tech world had about public attitudes.<br />
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Full disclosure, I really like Facebook. I enjoy it immensely and there is a decent chance readers will find this post through Facebook. Further, on the whole I am a fan of new technology, we've seen great things happen in recent decades. My paper is a bit of a <i>cri de coeur </i>to tech world urging them to consider public perceptions so that when they do something ill-advised they don't face backlash that stymies innovation.<br />
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Let me start from the beginning.<br />
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<b>Communicating Risk</b><br />
Robots, that is, in the words of the i<a href="http://cseweb.ucsd.edu/~lriek/">nestimable Laurel Riek</a>, are: <i>physically embodied systems capable of
enacting physical change in the world. </i>This change, either locomotion or manipulation, means this systems will be able to do harm. The paper includes an in-depth taxonomy of vectors of harm robots may do. Further, many, although not all, robots are directed by non-deterministic algorithms, which means that they may act in unpredictable ways. (The tragic Uber self-driving vehicle accident is an example.) On the whole, these systems have enormous potential to bring benefits, but that must be balanced against the potential for harm.<br />
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To make informed decisions about using and interacting with robots, people need essential information. Ensuring people have this information is the role of risk communication.<br />
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The paper begins with a summary of risk communication, a well developed field. There has been extensive research on <a href="https://www.fda.gov/AboutFDA/ReportsManualsForms/Reports/ucm268078.htm">risk communication and public health</a> and environmental issues, as well as the subfield of crisis communications. There has been extensive research about how to best communicate probabilities, what type of language to use, and what mechanisms are most effective for reaching audiences. This is not to say it is a settled science, much of the work is intuitive and every issue and situation will require new approaches.<br />
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Further - and this is big - people vastly overestimate how well they understand others and how well they are understood. This, from my cursory reading, is central to communications theory and makes all of this really hard. A communicator might think they did a bang-up job, but the key points recalled by the recipient were not what was intended.<br />
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The obvious conclusion is that the robotics industry should start studying this field and figure out how to apply it. But there's more (and I'm coming back to Facebook - even though they aren't building robots.)<br />
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<b>Risk Perception</b><br />
But there's more. A lot more. The risk communication process described above is a rational cost benefit analysis process. But that is not how people make decisions. Certain types of risks and benefits loom large in people's minds out of proportion to their probability. The classic case is terrorism, which your TerrorWonk will readily point out is much less likely to kill someone in the U.S. than a car accident. But this offers little comfort, people understand car accidents and feel they have some control. Terrorism is poorly understood, uncontrolled, and potentially catastrophic. Terrorism, in particular, inspires dread because there is an active adversary behind it.<br />
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It would be easy to dismiss these concerns as irrational, but also unwise. <a href="http://www.decisionresearch.org/researcher/paul-slovic-ph-d/">Paul Slovic</a>, one of the giants of this field, wrote:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Perhaps the most important message from this research is that there is wisdom as well as
error in public attitudes and perceptions. Lay people sometimes lack certain information
about hazards. However, their basic conceptualizations of risk is much richer than that of
experts and reflects legitimate concerns that are typically omitted from expert risk
assessments.</blockquote>
<a href="http://www.macgregorbates.com/">Donald MacGregor, of MacGregor-Bates Applied Decision Concepts</a>, put it more bluntly, telling me:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Familiarity with the technical risk analysis can breed contempt for those who don't share the same views of risk. </blockquote>
This is where businesses, industries, and governments can get into trouble, when they do not consider these perceptions of risk a failure can lead to a "signal" event that triggers public concern of catastrophic impact. The classic case is the nuclear power industry. They did not consider seriously the potential of an accident, did not engage in serious risk communication, and when Three Mile Island occurred the public was frightened. Even though the accident did no real damage, the public perception shifted quickly and nuclear power development was effectively halted in the United States.<br />
<br />
In the paper I discussed how robots, because they are perceived as having agency and because their actions may not be well understood may trigger high levels of perceived risk and could trigger a signal event. I'll go farther and say that tech world more broadly is not immune to this possibility.<br />
<br />
<b>A Matter of Trust</b><br />
Effective risk communication relies on trust. If the communicator has trust, the audiences will hear their message and bear some risks. Trust however is very hard to build, requiring extensive two-way communication. It is also very, very easy to lose.<br />
<br />
My concern is that tech world is assuming a high level of public trust. Facebook (remember them) has the famous slogan: <i>move fast and break things.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt told an audience at MIT: <i>Instead of spending all day worrying, why don't you wait until there's a near miss... Let's not translate that worry into premature constraints on the innovators....</i><br />
<br />
In tech world the belief appears to be that when inevitable failures occur, the public will understand. But this reservoir may not exist and when signal events occur, there will be broad regulatory and public backlash.<br />
<br />
<b>Back to Facebook</b><br />
That brings us back to Facebook's dating service (I don't doubt, by the way, the company's ability to do some effective analytics on this). After the Cambridge Analytica imbroglio, the company is under increasing scrutiny. That scrutiny is not going to be limited to the issues around the 2016 election, it will extend more broadly into what Facebook does with the data it gathers. They are, to their credit, making some moves to better meet privacy concerns.<br />
<br />
Given this situation is now a good time to consider a bold new endeavor that leverages very personal information? Further, there are going to be incidents of violence and harassment linked to this dating service - this is a matter of percentages, given the unfortunate and terrible reality of violence against women. Even if Facebook does a masterful job and is incredibly effective at screening out those with violent tendencies (and this is very hard to do), their algorithm will not be perfect.<br />
<br />
When this happens Facebook is very likely to be held responsible. Their arguments that they have done everything possible to protect the participants in their dating site will not sway and angry public. When they appeal to the public on the basis of the good they've done, Facebook may find that it has few friends.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-88497332452957670502018-03-19T07:34:00.000-04:002018-03-21T21:04:04.063-04:00Bullying Friends: On Tariffs, Norms, and Canada<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnIlNG3F6w_XGJR_q_M-xRPTEFh0099mKUzklLROg03QGsjcmpRpHwAzAgnnoeUoZRyr1e958g6ho9LgcubCB95P3xz2p_jmvKRymIUXNmrUTAuybVJd2L9BWe8CWVdc3aVZtL6Us6CIOW/s1600/o-CANADA-UNITED-STATES-FLAGS-facebook-1140x684.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="1140" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnIlNG3F6w_XGJR_q_M-xRPTEFh0099mKUzklLROg03QGsjcmpRpHwAzAgnnoeUoZRyr1e958g6ho9LgcubCB95P3xz2p_jmvKRymIUXNmrUTAuybVJd2L9BWe8CWVdc3aVZtL6Us6CIOW/s320/o-CANADA-UNITED-STATES-FLAGS-facebook-1140x684.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<i>I started this post last week, then <a href="https://conferences.law.stanford.edu/werobot/agenda/">life</a> and events overtook it. Foreign affairs world went nuts, with the ousting of Tillerson and McMaster. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/03/13/will-trumps-crude-issue-linkage-work/?utm_term=.100b112477ae">Daniel Drezner, of course, said the same thing</a> I say below, but better. He was more analytical than I am. I'm more emotional, and kind of upset about this, so I'm posting it anyway.</i><br />
<br />
Michael Corleone followed the dictum, "<i>Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer."</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
This administration has inverted the strategy to: <u>Suck up to your enemies, and piss off your friends</u>.<br />
<br />
The administration's tariffs are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/03/08/the-dumbest-defense-of-trumps-tariffs-this-week/?utm_term=.930f0226519f">terrible economics</a>, terrible foreign policy, and awful for our security policy. I won't reiterate the arguments on the economic front, others have made them. On foreign policy more broadly, besides annoying friends, it could spark a trade war which will hurt workers, and it undermines the World Trade Organization - the linchpin of a global trade order that the U.S. established. Finally, trade relationships underpin and strengthen security relationships.<br />
<br />
Saying that the tariffs are bad for our relationships with allies is a bit vague. These relationships are not simply a two-dimensional thermometer - how much do they like us? <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2016/01/presidential-efficacy-foreign-policy.html">These relationships are complex and multi-dimensional.</a> It isn't that this drives the temperature down, rather, it breaks the thermometer.<br />
<br />
<b>Consider Canada</b><br />
I am generally and <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2016/07/oh-canada-part-1-capital-is-window-to.html">genuinely interested in Canada</a>. Regular readers (should I have any) will know that my favorite novelist, the late <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/search?q=robertson+davies">Robertson Davies</a> is Canadian. I don't read him for his thoughts on world affairs or even Canadian politics, but it has given me some modest insight into the national character of our great neighbor to the north.<br />
<br />
This has led me to muse on Canadian history a bit, granted, through an American lens. On a visit to Ottawa, I went to the <a href="https://www.warmuseum.ca/">Canadian War Museum</a> and got a bit of the alternative perspective.<br />
<br />
When the President announced tariffs on steel and aluminum, the impact would have fallen disproportionately on Canada (in great part because the U.S. and Canadian economy are so tightly integrated.) Faced with blowback, the White House announced an exemption for Canada and Mexico - <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4076270/u-s-steel-tariffs-trump-hamilton-steeltown/">with the caveat that Canada and Mexico renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.</a><br />
<br />
So the U.S. will play hardball, using the steel tariffs as leverage in the NAFTA negotiations. There are a lot of specific problems with this strategy. First, we claimed the tariffs on a rarely used national security basis, using at leverage in a trade deal undercuts our case before the WTO. Second, it may not be a terribly effective negotiating tactic since NAFTA is hugely complicated and will take some time, so a gun to the head is not helpful. Further steel is not that big of a component to the Canadian economy (or ours) so if forced to, Canada will take a hit on steel on behalf of other industries that have more at stake.<br />
<br />
But something bigger and more unpleasant is going on.<br />
<br />
<b>Partnership or Vassal</b><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrnegWuyJhb4_8pYmIbBfWY5U4kjpMO_zDwlae5QbdlbaI2hyphenhyphenoPfUWb1tzP_dho60zs2Uo7H_bFN_1xCGBkms3BbS-u3JLUFkwox0FzRQCSVkhg6GhTcOo0KTgKWeiVwmdxnwcE-m-uqjk/s1600/o-CANADA-UNITED-STATES-FLAGS-facebook-1140x684.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="1140" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrnegWuyJhb4_8pYmIbBfWY5U4kjpMO_zDwlae5QbdlbaI2hyphenhyphenoPfUWb1tzP_dho60zs2Uo7H_bFN_1xCGBkms3BbS-u3JLUFkwox0FzRQCSVkhg6GhTcOo0KTgKWeiVwmdxnwcE-m-uqjk/s320/o-CANADA-UNITED-STATES-FLAGS-facebook-1140x684.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Our flags wave to the same winds.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Imagine a firm with two partners. One partner is wealthier and a bigger part of the firm than the other, but it is still a partnership. The lesser partner is a valuable contributor. The two partners work out most issues equitably. The issues aren't just financial, they work side-by-side so all kinds of things would come up and have to be dealt with. At the same time, with such proximity, there are warm personal relations between the two partners, they help each other with non-business issues. When there are contentious issues, say profit distributions, the two sides agree to an independent arbitrator - precisely to avoid tough negotiations that could add ill will to their relationship.<br />
<br />
Now imagine the bigger partner suddenly starts playing hardball with the lesser partner. How will the lesser partner feel. Will that make other issues between them difficult? Will they start squabbling over cleaning the office kitchen or parking spaces? Maybe the lesser partner has few options and will remain, but bitter, less cooperative.<br />
<br />
Would that be worth it?<br />
<br />
<b>Canada Looks South</b><br />
My parents were just up in NYC and saw the Tony award winning play <a href="http://comefromaway.com/">Come From Away</a>. It is about the town of Gander, Newfoundland that took in over 6000 passengers on 9/11 when U.S. airspace was shut down. My parents were deeply moved and reported that the applause was thunderous. Canada has our back. Remember the movie Argo, how Canadian diplomats rescued Americans during the Iran hostage crisis?<br />
<br />
This is not to say that we don't do good things for Canada too. Every year the <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/11/30/city-officials-unveil-monument-honor-bond-between-boston-and-nova-scotia/GZRq6yc5DgGeGOXFxYJYOI/story.html">city of Halifax sends a Christmas tree to Boston</a> to honor the aid sent after an explosion in Halifax Harbour killed 2000 and devastated the city.<br />
<br />
More than that, on a personal level, at least on the surface, Americans and Canadians share vast cultural affinities. Of course, if one delves deeper, differences emerge, but there is enough commonality for an easy relationship.<br />
<br />
At the same time, it is not all sweetness and light between us. The close relationship between the U.S. and Canada took time to build. The U.S. invaded Canada - twice. First in the Revolutionary War and second in the War of 1812, in which we sought to liberate Canada from the yoke of tyrannical England. The Canadians preferred to choose their own yoke, and defeated the American expedition. The War of 1812 is fundamental to Canada's national narrative. Y<a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2012/06/dystopia-what-if-us-conquered-canada-in.html">et, the Canadians were courteous enough to send ships to Baltimore Harbor for the 200th anniversary of that war.</a> At the Canadian War Museum, the exhibit notes that the United States had some legitimate grievances with the United Kingdom.<br />
<br />
It isn't just a threat of state invasion that concerns Canada, they are also worried about stuff that bubbles up from their great neighbor to the south. While the U.S. worries about Islamist terrorists infiltrating from Canada (and it happened.) The Canadians are pretty concerned about living next to a giant open air firearms market. Worries about U.S. weaponry making havoc are a serious concern for Canadian security analysts, and it also pops up in Canadian fiction.<br />
<br />
It is not a completely hypothetical concern. After the U.S. Civil War, I<a href="http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/fenian-raids/">rish veterans formed the Fenians, a secret society that sought to take Canada by force and hold it hostage for Irish independence.</a> Between 1866 and 1871 the Fenians carried out a number of raids and fought pitched battles with hastily formed Canadian militias. Efforts to coordinate the response hastened the establishment of the Canadian confederation.<br />
<br />
Deep in their hearts, Canada has a certain distrust of the United States. It is buried under a huge reservoir of good will, but we should have no illusions and not simply take this good will for granted. But that is exactly what we are doing.<br />
<br />
<b>Trust and Justice</b><br />
The U.S. and Canada have a - perhaps <i>the </i>- model of international comity. Despite its massive power, the United States does not simply force its will on Canada, our relationship is cooperative. This is the U.S. at its best. The U.S. that built the modern liberal international order, that surrenders some of its own power in order to win allies and become yet more powerful.<br />
<br />
In <i>The Republic</i>, Thrasymuchus states that strong was what the strong say it is. Plato, speaking through Socrates, says that there is justice and ultimately those who claim it but do not practice it will suffer consequences. <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2014/07/winning-by-losing-us-world-cup.html">At its best - and we are not always at our best - the U.S. embodies this.</a> In our bullying Canada, we take a step towards our worst selves and that is the America the world will see and remember.<br />
<br />
Is that who we are? Is that who we want to be?<br />
<br />
It is neither smart nor nice and it is not the U.S. I want.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-73334774953116350642018-01-23T06:44:00.001-05:002018-01-23T18:20:46.354-05:00Amazon in DC-area is bad... for America<div class="MsoNormal">
I'm not a NIMBY.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I don’t want Amazon to come to the DC area. But this isn’t
personal. It will probably <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/01/19/which-metros-have-enough-housing-capacity-to-absorb-amazons-hq2/">make traffic worse and it will drive up real estate prices</a> – but I already own a home, so I can cash out. (And I don't have a particular problem with Amazon or any of the technorati - they aren't as smart as they think they are, but really, who is?)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My issue is that if Amazon comes to the DC area <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/18/amazon-narrows-list-of-candidates-for-new-headquarters-hq2-to-20.html">(three of the final twenty locations for its new second HQ are in the Capital Region)</a> it will have ripple effects on the U.S. government and the country.</div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRvoSrugvqnG4nkNdxvm02qRK4CV6qBcm2r4BkJNQHfAIsT3XqRqUNJwCzT3IRWUuwIuZFipoRelGmetTcCZsphjJjNPvNu4EnD25RH8BKs7mC6IM8l3GL-aMm36Cgc73Go_gLXXJ_L5EN/s1600/ecuador-amazon-jungle-river.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1069" data-original-width="1600" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRvoSrugvqnG4nkNdxvm02qRK4CV6qBcm2r4BkJNQHfAIsT3XqRqUNJwCzT3IRWUuwIuZFipoRelGmetTcCZsphjJjNPvNu4EnD25RH8BKs7mC6IM8l3GL-aMm36Cgc73Go_gLXXJ_L5EN/s320/ecuador-amazon-jungle-river.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Amazon could turn DC into a jungle!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
DC area real estate prices are high, not as high as the Bay
Area, but high. Amazon, with its infusion of high-paying jobs, both from direct
hires and the attendant businesses that will start or expand in its wake, will
push real estate prices much higher. The backbone of the greater DC area is
civil servants, government workers. They are compensated well, but not
extravagantly. Even the very, very t<a href="https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/salaries-wages/salary-tables/pdf/2018/DCB.pdf">op-level government salaries (with some specific exceptions)are well below $200,000</a> – certainly enough to be comfortable, but not remarkable by
tech world standards. A steep rise in real estate prices will make it difficult
for government professionals – civil servants who have valuable skills and
could find alternative employment – to get by. They will find more lucrative
professions, exacerbating the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-16-880T">existing brain drain</a> of experienced civil servants. Of course, these rising real
estate prices will also be bad for the less well-compensated – mid and lower
level civil servants, teachers, and, well, everyone else. This broader effect
will be bad for the region, but for the nation as a whole, losing talented civil servants
could be devastating. Further, young people may be further dissuaded from entering public service.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At the same time, one area where the <a href="http://www.nextgov.com/cio-briefing/2017/12/governments-struggle-hire-young-tech-talent-worse-you-thought/144225/">U.S. government faces ongoing and severe challenges is attracting tech talent</a>. Having
Amazon in the neighborhood will create extremely lucrative opportunities that
talented tech workers will find difficult to ignore. But government needs for
computer science talent, from programming to theory to data science are
significant. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cybersecurity-dhs/homeland-security-struggles-to-tempt-retain-cyber-talent-idUSBREA3P05O20140426">National security is one particular field that will suffer</a>, but
they are not alone. Managing and processing complex networks and enormous amounts of data is
critical for agencies to serve the American people. But anyone who shows much
talent – particularly if real estate prices are rising – will find the siren
song of Amazon tough to resist.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally, the DC area, on the whole is already wealthy. The stability
of government work insulated the region from some of the worst fallout of the
great recession. This isn't to say there aren't wealth gaps and problems, but frankly Amazon might make them worse - not better. Anyway, the DC area does not need this – lots of other places in
America do.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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I don't blame local politicians for pursuing Amazon, and the online shopping behemoth will probably not factor the good of the country in its decision. But here's hoping...<o:p></o:p></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-87749169489714451552018-01-17T11:38:00.001-05:002018-01-17T11:38:23.376-05:00Robots are coming, but maybe not to consumersReading coverage of the Consumer Electronics Show, <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2018/01/even-at-ces-home-robots-are-still-pointless.html">it does not appear that the robots left anyone terribly impressed.</a> We all have images of Rosie the Robot from <i>The Jetsons</i>, which effortlessly and with little instruction just does all the housework. The reality is that this is not coming any time soon. Folding laundry turns out to be really, really hard. So the Consumer Electronics Show features a lot of wonky systems that don't work very well. Gadget junkies may be entranced, but regular consumers don't need an expensive toy that will take longer to get to do a task than it would take to just do the task. (If we enjoy that kind of frustration we can just try to get our kids to do their chores.)<div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2FzP98KMn29AHHQe7ebiW_pt8khGimz5X5oJlKctDKw5kbHg2Zza8VzGFOgnxLx4y9rlrNILw8BWBm3qpH763gUbDNjFhvkwgNKAdwqDLjQeG68AyMVsqErvNwEinE-zDEsD-M8XBa-66/s1600/Rosie.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="700" data-original-width="1400" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2FzP98KMn29AHHQe7ebiW_pt8khGimz5X5oJlKctDKw5kbHg2Zza8VzGFOgnxLx4y9rlrNILw8BWBm3qpH763gUbDNjFhvkwgNKAdwqDLjQeG68AyMVsqErvNwEinE-zDEsD-M8XBa-66/s320/Rosie.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Rosie won't be coming today.</td></tr>
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Consumers want devices that, with limited set-up, <u>work</u>. Robots, autonomous systems, are run by machine learning algorithms - that means they have to learn. Learning means they have to be taught, it also means they will make mistakes. Who the hell has time for this kind of thing?</div>
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For some applications, this can work. Smart thermostats are an example. Preferences are not that hard to learn and mistakes are not catastrophic. But think about a smart refrigerator that could inventory your food, recommend meals, and order necessities. This sounds great, but then consider the problems in implementation. For starters, in a typical home there might be a dozen places where food is stored - not just the refrigerator. Now you need smart pantries and spice cabinets, etc.</div>
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Let's imagine that this smart home can monitor your food supply, make recipe recommendations, identify when items are needed and then order them. This would actually be pretty great. There would be hiccups of course, plus the system would have a lot of pretty personal information. There might be a time consuming learning curve as you taught it what recipes you liked and what kind of food you wanted to have around. But it could work. It might even be fun.</div>
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But here's the ugly secret. The thinking is relatively easy. The sensing is very hard. Presumably all of the food going into your smart home has some sort of electronic marker allowing your kitchen to record it. Then there will be a bevy of sensors to follow the consumption path of each item. This is a lot of sensors and a lot of opportunities for things to go wrong. Then you would need to teach it what was a priority. (Order pasta when we are down to one box etc.)</div>
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It is all theoretically possible, but there are so many things that can go wrong and working with it might be more trouble than it's worth. You can just scan your fridge and pantry and make a shopping list in a lot less time.</div>
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But that doesn't mean robots aren't coming.</div>
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<b>Serious Users</b></div>
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This smart refrigerator or kitchen is not worth your time. But a hospital refrigeration system for storing blood and medicine is a different story. The hospital already has a staff and systems for monitoring these things. The value of the items in question are very high - both in cost but also in consequence (you need to have the right supplies on hand and usable.)</div>
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If a hospital recognizes that there will be significant gains in efficiency using a smart refrigeration system, they can make the investment both in money and time to learn the systems and blend their existing processes in with the system's functionality. Hotels, restaurants, and a vast range of other organizations might also be willing to make this investment. Managing food inventory is a huge issue for the hospitality industry.</div>
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One can imagine lots of other smart systems that might not be worth the effort for a home, but would be for a large-scale enterprise. This will lead to an iterative process. The first enterprises to purchase the smart refrigeration system would probably be larger (maybe not the biggest) and have some experience integrating new technology. In turn the vendors would also learn what it took to meet customer needs and be better positions to market their systems to more conservative buyers. In time the technology would become commonplace, lowering costs (again both financial but also in the time required to learn the system) and - at some point - maybe becoming a consumer product.</div>
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At this point the autonomous systems in questions are not there. The models will need to learn, but at the same time we need to learn the models.</div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-17999624264534760142018-01-12T09:46:00.002-05:002018-01-12T10:26:42.793-05:00Trumpest in a Teapot: On the new U.S. Embassy in LondonIn typical "presidential" fashion, <i>that man in the White House</i> <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/report-trump-calls-off-london-visit-over-possible-protests">tweeted that he would not go to London to open the U.S. Embassy, because we got a bad deal on the Embassy.</a><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Maybe if it had more gold? New U.S. Embassy in London</td></tr>
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Now this does little for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/11/20/why-it-would-be-nice-to-have-a-functioning-state-department-part-lvxii/?utm_term=.6a6c4a601139">State Department morale</a> or Anglo-American relations. It is entirely possible that the "bad deal" is a convenient excuse for skipping a trip in which the president would be greeted by large, loud, unhappy crowds and unpleasant meetings with frosty British counterparts. Although he does fawn over royalty, this trip would probably not feature golden orbs and the queen would not be <i>gauche </i>and let him fondle the royal sceptre.<br />
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But let's take the president at his word, he thinks we got a bad deal on the Embassy. That does not mean that we did (<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/report-trump-calls-off-london-visit-over-possible-protests">the details are not public.</a>) It is also an open question as to whether or not the president's judgment on what constitutes a good deal -- even in real estate, where he is supposedly an expert -- is very good. Consider this snippet from a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hes-better-than-this-says-thomas-barrack-trumps-loyal-whisperer/2017/10/10/067fc776-a215-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.74fa49b03e61">profile of Trump confidant Tom Barrack</a>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqyyMs9uE63rhBbIiwIw30opRGwsWzqEaYc0oafv6O4THnxx3BnjwGw0cEJHvHze8jUYdngZeFFrA7DzX7EmP1aS0uaHSU7jTHjWQMCngkNtcJ3tNG3ugP2qfkO8csp8eRtIk_m3e3jf1C/s1600/Barrack.tiff" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" data-original-height="305" data-original-width="785" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqyyMs9uE63rhBbIiwIw30opRGwsWzqEaYc0oafv6O4THnxx3BnjwGw0cEJHvHze8jUYdngZeFFrA7DzX7EmP1aS0uaHSU7jTHjWQMCngkNtcJ3tNG3ugP2qfkO8csp8eRtIk_m3e3jf1C/s640/Barrack.tiff" width="640" /></a></div>
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But let's pretend the U.S. got a bad deal on selling its old Embassy and building the new one. Does it matter? Is it an issue worth the president's time and energy?</div>
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I <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2008/08/barack-budget-promises-process.html">chided candidate Barack Obama for promising to go over the budget line-by-line</a>. It is a waste of time. Spending a day to kill some minor initiative and save a little money is not a terrific use of the president's most valuable and limited resource - time.</div>
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Of course the president could delegate this to the Secretary of State, that just eats up the Secretary of State's time and energy - which is also in short supply.</div>
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<i>(No doubt at this point readers - should I have any - are asking why this is in <u>TerrorWonk</u> about national security rather than <u><a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/">VeepCritique</a></u>, where I talk about presidents and stuff. We're coming to that.)</i></div>
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But there is something else going on. If Embassy construction issues are raised at the presidential or even secretarial level that will engage their counterparts in the other country - who will not appreciate having this relatively minor issue on their desk. But, if the U.S. insists, they will consider it, but now it becomes another card in their hand. If they help the United States on this issue, they will expect certain things in return. </div>
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<a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2016/01/presidential-efficacy-foreign-policy.html">Most importantly, however, U.S. relationships with other countries exist in time and space.</a> Our relationship with any given country is not a one-off, it continues. A thing done in the past affects what happens in the future. At the same time, what the U.S. does in its relations with one country shapes how other countries see the U.S. So if the U.S. is seen as nickel and diming its closest ally over an embassy, to save maybe a few hundred million dollars (which in the context of a multi-<u style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">trillion</u> dollar budget is chump change) that will have a cost. The U.K. will see us differently (<a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2016/03/skybolt-historic-case-study-of.html">we have a special relationship, but we dare not take that for granted - it can fray</a>.) Other countries too will see us differently, and change their behaviors accordingly.</div>
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On the other hand, given this <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/28/trump-is-bluffing-about-attacking-north-korea-in-2018/">president's penchant for impulsive actions in highly volatile situations that could have disastrous consequences</a> - maybe it would be for the best if he focused real estate deals.</div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-632935007111351922018-01-05T07:07:00.002-05:002018-01-05T07:07:25.426-05:00Balancing Pakistan...with Iran?<div class="tr_bq">
The illustrious Christine Fair has an article in <i>Foreign Policy</i> discussing what's going on between the U.S. and Pakistan entitled <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/03/pakistan-has-all-the-leverage-over-trump/">Pakistan Has All the Leverage Over Trump</a>. The title pretty much tells you what you need to know. If you are going to fight a war in Afghanistan you have to get there (it's landlocked.) For us, right now, Pakistan is the way to get there. Unfortunately their priorities do not match ours. Fair writes:</div>
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<span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif;">One can argue that the United States lost the war in Afghanistan when it went to war with Pakistan, one of the states most committed to undermining U.S. efforts there. Whereas the United States wants a stable Afghan government that can resist its predatory neighbors and keep Islamist militants out of the government and prevent these militants from using Afghanistan as a sanctuary to train, recruit, and plan terrorist attacks in the region and beyond, this is </span><em style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif;">precisely</em><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif;"> the Afghanistan that Pakistan wants.</span></blockquote>
Fair (who, full disclosure, I know, like, and admire) notes that Obama ran into this reality as well and - as Trump is doing now - tried to use U.S. aid as leverage over Pakistan. Obama went further, threatening, and to a limited extent carrying out military strikes on Pakistan. Unfortunately, Pakistani behavior has not really changed. Hanging over this, Fair observes, <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2010/08/end-of-pakistan.html">and I've thought about it as well</a>, is that Pakistan also threatens us through its very fragility. That is, if we don't support Pakistan financially it could become a nuclear armed-failed state awash in Islamist terrorists. (Nightmares anyone?)<br />
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Fair points out, <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/when-it-comes-afghanistan-america-should-ditch-pakistan-iran-13788">as she has for years</a>, that there is an alternative to our logistic dependence on Pakistan, a route into Afghanistan starting at the Iranian port of Chabahar. Fair notes that Iran was willing to work with us after 9/11 but we rebuffed them. But now things may have changed:<br />
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But most Americans recoil at the suggestion of cooperating with Iran, arguing that Tehran is a potential nuclear-proliferating sponsor of terrorism. Needless to say, Pakistan is an actual nuclear-proliferating sponsor of terrorism. Moreover, Pakistan is actually <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">more</em> dangerous than Iran: Tehran’s terrorist proxies are regional menaces rather than the international, hydra-headed scourges cultivated by Islamabad.</blockquote>
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Under the Obama administration, the United States made unprecedented progress in thawing relations with Iran with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, which opened up at least the possibility of exploring the idea of moving supplies from the port in Chabahar.</blockquote>
I am not as sanguine as Fair about Iran's behavior. Their record as supporters of terrorism is pretty extensive and their activities across the Middle East represent a strategic problem. Even if we did recognize Iran as the lesser evil to Pakistan there are formidable domestic constituencies heavily opposed to this opening. Further, a number of our allies in the Middle East really, really do not like Iran. Would we want to upend our relations with them so we could fight in Afghanistan? Tough call.<br />
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Do we even want to be fighting in Afghanistan. There is a strong argument that our continued presence there is a case of the sunk costs fallacy - we can't quite because we've already invested so much. There is the concern that if leave and the Taliban take over (as seems likely), Afghanistan will again become a locus for international terrorism. I'm actually less worried about that. 9/11 happened, in part, but global attention was not on international terrorism. Now it is and while various counter-terror capabilities might need to be expanded, that's way cheaper than fighting in Afghanistan.<br />
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My argument for staying in Afghanistan would be the humanitarian one. The people of Afghanistan did not ask to be the crucible on which the Cold War ended or for their own resulting decades of civil war. Things there are very bad now, but there have also been remarkable gains (at least in some parts of the country).<br />
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There is another reason, besides enabling the fight in Afghanistan, to turn to Iran. That is Pakistan itself. It is, as I've written, an international basket-case. <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2014/12/is-pakistani-turnaround-possible.html">Without serious reforms</a> it is difficult to see how it can face its <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2009/05/pakistan-fissures-i-hating-manor-born.html">multi-pronged</a> <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2012/12/pakistans-finance-minister-playing.html">economic</a>, <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2009/05/pakistan-fissures-ii-ethnic-cleavages.html">social</a>, and <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2015/09/pakistans-endangered-leopards-time-to.html">environmental</a> challenges. If we don't need Pakistan for other foreign policy goals, we are in better shape to try to influence Pakistan itself, we change who has leverage. For Pakistan the core issue, from the very founding of the state, has been its conflict with India. This obsession helped enable the Pakistani military to dominate the state, making vast claims on the nation's resources - leading to or exacerbating the various structural deficits threatening the state itself. Can we push and prod Pakistan into new directions? Maybe, probably not - but unless we decouple them from our Afghanistan policy moves in that direction don't stand a chance.<br />
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And what of Iran? There is stuff doing there, I don't claim to have any insight whatsoever. Can they lead to new opportunities? Not really soon. We don't know where this will lead. Could we get a new Iran that can become a close ally and utterly changes and recounces its past behavior? Maybe, probably not. Can we get an Iran that we can do pragmatically do business with? That seems more likely, but working with them will require adroit diplomacy both with Iran, other players in the region, and domestically.<br />
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Time will tell.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-88894487614855199922017-12-28T09:36:00.001-05:002017-12-28T09:36:41.506-05:00Writing Mad: Our Failed Public Diplomacy CampaignsI try to affect a mild analytic tone in my writing here (which probably doesn't get me many readers.) But today I can't, I am really mad. On Christmas, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kremlin-trolls-burned-across-the-internet-as-washington-debated-options/2017/12/23/e7b9dc92-e403-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html?utm_term=.c57f1810003d"><i>The Washington Post </i>ran this story</a> on how the U.S. bureaucracy could not pull together an effective response to Russian information operations.<br />
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Here is are two critical clips, but by all means, read the entire article.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGT5ch5a8BNnjyX9q2Vlw14W1zzTS1JXXsdBox9FSTfvhyphenhyphen2drMIB0SDaHbq4ouVTYzh3W77k4ftQE5CWYhNDq9EPzIQfutEMi40wxD6_Q_SzzfDkIhTeS_tvD-nNxOTt-ZPgRwywORDKK8/s1600/PD1.tiff" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="625" data-original-width="916" height="435" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGT5ch5a8BNnjyX9q2Vlw14W1zzTS1JXXsdBox9FSTfvhyphenhyphen2drMIB0SDaHbq4ouVTYzh3W77k4ftQE5CWYhNDq9EPzIQfutEMi40wxD6_Q_SzzfDkIhTeS_tvD-nNxOTt-ZPgRwywORDKK8/s640/PD1.tiff" width="640" /></a></div>
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Above, the Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy had a creative idea for leveraging the fantastic content generated by the American entertainment industry as a public diplomacy tool to counter the Kremlin. But, the material is already under contract and it just couldn't happen.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGdVsTJ2u0CsJP2kj9h8rsE6-ijC4l_OXNvgVPyYHpVYWX1fW9rOEv8Jbc471lN9k2uHHI-2s7EayhxQmEEdDAxDflaiZtHV20heFMsNLTuEZzfAPen1K70Hgx5z331tNaYOLrfvB2crr5/s1600/PD2.tiff" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="403" data-original-width="915" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGdVsTJ2u0CsJP2kj9h8rsE6-ijC4l_OXNvgVPyYHpVYWX1fW9rOEv8Jbc471lN9k2uHHI-2s7EayhxQmEEdDAxDflaiZtHV20heFMsNLTuEZzfAPen1K70Hgx5z331tNaYOLrfvB2crr5/s640/PD2.tiff" width="640" /></a></div>
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Here again, a clever official at State has a plan to use cutting edge social media analytics to build networks to counter Kremlin propaganda networks. Great, but State cannot carry out public diplomacy on the American people, so it couldn't happen.</div>
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<b>What made me so angry?</b></div>
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Am I mad at the State Department lawyers who wouldn't permit the project to go ahead? No, they are there for a reason. Our bureaucracies operate under constraints that reflect our values and priorities. </div>
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Let me step back.</div>
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Since 9/11 I have gone to hundreds of think tank events, public forums, and other events where the great and good explain the world. I've even spoken at a few of them. All of them talked about the need to fight "The War or Ideas" or "Counter the Narrative." </div>
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At one, discussing ISIS, about two years ago I said: "I've gone to so many of these events over the past fifteen years ago and everyone says we need to win the war of ideas. But we still haven't really committed to doing anything about it."</div>
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The speaker observed that ISIS propaganda works differently from al-Qaeda propaganda, so past efforts aren't effective.</div>
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My rejoinder was, "Fair enough, but that's like talking about needing snow tires when we still haven't bought a car!"</div>
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The speaker acknowledged my point. It isn't that State was blindsided by Russian propaganda. They were, but that is going to happen. It isn't that we probably shouldn't have dismantled our public diplomacy infrastructure after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Again, we shouldn't have, but we were feeling good about ourselves.</div>
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It is that - <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2015/05/sad-state-of-public-diplomacy-state.html">and I've written about this before</a> - despite talking about it, we still have not established the bureaucratic infrastructure for effective public diplomacy. Given time, work arounds can be developed to bureaucratic constraints. If the U.S. government had really been working these issues (not the individuals - who are trying - but the institutions) then there would have been a range of ideas and capabilities available. They might need to be repurposed from countering radical Islam to countering the Kremlin, but at least there would have been frameworks already established. </div>
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<b>Failure of Leadership</b></div>
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Ultimately, to get results investments need to be made. It is that simple. Yes there is political turnover, but plenty of agencies have sufficient resources to build and maintain capabilities regardless of political leadership. DOD maintains a vast range of capabilities regardless of who is in power. If we want effective public diplomacy we need the personnel and the funding to create ongoing, continuing capabilities - sort of like the infrastructure we have for financial sanctions.</div>
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We often hear that U.S. public diplomacy has difficulty adapting to new media. Fair enough, but if the resources are there, then they can have people looking over the horizon at what is coming next. If they are completely overwhelmed by their inboxes there is no time. Further, with resources they can break the bureaucratic log-jams. Doing this requires people, to do research, attend meetings, and brainstorm work-arounds.</div>
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<a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2010/11/review-of-winning-long-war-in-journal.html">Maybe we need to re-establish the old U.S. Information Agency, which was so effective in the Cold War, but folded into State when it was over.</a></div>
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A corollary to this is that public diplomacy is a strategic afterthought, off in a corner. That reduces synergies. If public diplomacy is understood as a central, critical element (DIMEC? the C is for communications) other components of the U.S. government can contribute. </div>
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I am still pissed that almost a decade ago <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2012/10/brother-against-brother-missed-chance.html">we deported the brother of Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafez Saeed</a>. The brother, a Muslim cleric in Sharon, Massachusetts, desperately wanted to stay in the U.S. and was much loved in his town (the rabbis went to bat for him.) Talk about a potential public diplomacy asset!!! But instead we deported him and he signed on with his brother.</div>
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But unless there is real bureaucratic heft behind public diplomacy, other agency prerogatives - such as Justice's desire to convict people - will prevail.</div>
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<b>None of this stuff is easy. There are a lot of other priorities. But really, we've had a decade of complaining about this issue and no action.</b></div>
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<b>I'll write about this later, but State has its own basket of fundamental structural problems.</b></div>
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<b>And no real public diplomacy effort is likely in this administration where the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/11/20/why-it-would-be-nice-to-have-a-functioning-state-department-part-lvxii/?utm_term=.7eff9218fdda">entire State Department is being defenestrated, the very concept of diplomacy is not understood</a>, and our president's toxicity is spoiling our world-beating brand.</b></div>
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<b>Still, I'm mad about this ongoing failure.</b></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-59413976072405600162017-12-21T22:28:00.002-05:002017-12-22T11:48:59.873-05:00Odds of Catastrophe Under the Current AdministrationAs 2017 comes to an end, much to the surprise of many, the world has not. Well, not yet, there's still a week. One of the things I worry about given our incompetent and neuroses driven president is the potential for stumbling into a really big catastrophe.<br />
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Not the tax bill. Yes, it's lousy, but it will not destroy the country or create huge mass suffering and it is reversible. I'm thinking more along the lines of what has happened in Puerto Rico (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/national/puerto-rico-life-without-power/?utm_term=.e3c97ed065fd">which is atrocious</a>) happening nationwide. Just something big and abominable - something that makes 9/11 look tiny, like say, a war with North Korea.<br />
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<b>We are probably not going to have a war with North Korea</b><br />
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/12/14/tell-me-how-trumps-north-korea-gambit-ends/?utm_term=.9856ec4b91b5">Some knowledgeable people are very, very worried about this possibility.</a> Others might argue that there is a sort of strategy of compellence evolving. Lots of threats and sanctions to force the North Koreans to the negotiating table on our terms (see below). One can see the logic of this strategy, but also recognize that, when deal with a paranoid (rational, but paranoid) regime, there is a tremendous potential for accidents. <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/entry-7-post-beach-breakthrough-time-nuclear-danger/">In international affairs, signaling can be a dicey business. A threat and a move interpreted by Pyongyang as hostile or a move toward pre-emption, and we could end up in a shooting war.</a> And once that kind of thing starts, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/this-is-how-nuclear-war-with-north-korea-would-unfold/2017/12/08/4e298a28-db07-11e7-a841-2066faf731ef_story.html?utm_term=.c0904f1203cc">it will get very bloody very fast.</a><br />
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I don't think that is going to happen. But here's the thing, if the probability very low, it is now low. In the world of intelligence analysis<br />
, words are considered very poor tools for probabilities. It is important to assign number, because what is low probability - 5%, 25%? It matters.<br />
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So let's say that overall the probability of war with North Korea was 1%. Could happen, don't worry too much about it. But, with ill-considered rhetoric flying around, perhaps it is up to 10%. That is still very unlikely, but higher than it should be. Stuff that is 10% likely happens and when it is as catastrophic as a nuclear war with North Korea, you really want to keep it as low as possible.<br />
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<b>It's the economy stupid</b><br />
North Korea is not the only - or even the first - nightmare scenario I worry about it. I also worry about the debt ceiling. They keep making temporary deals to raise it. But, if they should fail to make this deal and the U.S. starts defaulting on its debt, that would send unbelievable shockwaves to the global economy. We could plunge the world into an economic meltdown. Now, to be clear, this is also not likely. First, Congress will keep coming to agreements and if they miss a little, there are contingency plans that would buy a little extra time. But, given the administration's incompetence, not just the White House - also the Secretary of Treasury - one can see this happening through miscalculation.<br />
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That isn't the only scenario. What about the President, in a fit of pique, ending NAFTA. Besides possibly triggering a huge recession, it could also push Mexico into a serious political instability. Again, not likely - but likelier.<br />
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There are probably other scenarios I haven't thought of. Under Bush 43 they had the 1% doctrine, that is if a terrorist threat seemed 1% likely they had to treat it as highly probable. In retrospect, it was a pretty problematic doctrine.<br />
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I have my 10% doctrine, outlier scenarios that would normally be very highly unlikely (say 1%) are now just highly unlikely (say 10%). Things that are only 10% likely probably won't happen. But if you roll the dice often enough...<br />
<br />Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-14612749492642328552017-11-23T15:39:00.003-05:002017-11-23T15:39:51.043-05:00Thankful for the United StatesRight now, my country, the United States is in a pretty bad way. It isn't just about our politics (I can only write so much about that topic.) But wage stagnation and inequality has placed the American dream (or basic security) out of reach of so many. The ongoing legacy of slavery has re-emerged in stark ways. There are so many unnecessary petty cruelties visited on so many Americans (including those who are among us but don't have citizenship). I cannot list them all. (There is also the terrible treatment women must endure - but while I am completely sympathetic to this problem - it is not a problem unique to the United States. Sadly, for so much of human history women have been treated unjustly.)<br />
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Today we gather for one of our great - perhaps our greatest - national holiday, Thanksgiving. Of course the day itself is now complicated. The Pilgrims survived thanks to gifts from the native Americans. Those gifts have been repaid - an infinity fold - in murder and theft.<br />
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But I still love this country. First, every nation is built on a pile of bones. History is complicated. But the United States was founded on ideals. We do not live up to these ideals, and while it is easy to castigate us for this - no one could live up to our ideals. But we do try, and when we have we have done great things. At home, while so much of our wealth was built on slavery, we also fought a long and terrible war to end it.<br />
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Abroad we have done many awful things. This comes with being a great power. But (and you have to grade on a curve here) we are the least bad great power ever. We rebuilt Europe and Japan after WWII. We have promoted freedom and prosperity with at least some success. We have - at our best - been a shining example.<br />
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And for me, my life has been very comfortable. But my people, the Jewish people, have been persecuted terribly across the globe. While things have not always been easy for Jews in the United States, it is hard to think of another well place where Jews have been as successful and safe.<br />
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So I am thankful and remain thankful and will use my remaining time to help make sure we live up to our better angels and not become just another country.<br />
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I'm also thankful for the podcast <a href="https://www.apmpodcasts.org/thwod/">The Hilarious World of Depression</a>. Seriously grateful.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-45588245896066064682017-10-10T21:33:00.002-04:002017-10-10T21:33:24.015-04:00Domestic Security Implications of Las Vegas: Cold TakesI've waited a few days to write. Nothing sensational here or grand theories. No hot takes.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
First, the terrible events in Las Vegas cannot, at this point, be described as terrorism. They may be terrible and terrifying, but the <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2016-title28-vol1/pdf/CFR-2016-title28-vol1-sec0-85.pdf">Federal definition of terrorism includes a social or political objective</a>. So far, there is no evidence that this event had a political motive - that could change if new evidence comes to light. While everyone seeks some kind of explanation, it will bring at least a tiny amount of coherence to the horror and in a time like this we take what comfort we can.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
While the event was not terrorism, it was a security crisis and raises new issues for consideration. I will leave tactical response issues to others with the appropriate expertise. It did appear that the new <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/armed-with-a-new-approach-police-and-medics-stormed-through-the-las-vegas-gunfire-saving-lives/2017/10/05/3f4c255e-a9fe-11e7-850e-2bdd1236be5d_story.html?utm_term=.ea9536b9c62d">procedures for integrating police and fire units during the incident</a> were effective and allowed the extrication of victims during the incident. This allowed the wounded to receive more timely medical treatment, saving lives.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Geron-Terror</b></div>
<div>
The classic terrorist is a male between late teens and early thirties. Dylan Roof and Omar Mateen are classic cases, there are of course outliers. Years ago, working on a very different project, I was examining the files of violent incidents kept by the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/">Southern Poverty Law Center</a>. While many of the perpetrators were the classic disaffected young men, I also noted a lot of much older men involved in incidents as well. This was not the purpose of the project, but the information stayed with me.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I do not have hard data, but it is worth noting that - particularly among right-wing extremists - there are a fair number of much older perpetrators. The <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/06/10/museum.shooting/">2009 attack on the Holocaust Museum</a> in which a security guard was killed was carried out by 88 year old James W. von Brunn. Glenn Frazier Cross, who <a href="http://www.kctv5.com/story/25235053/shooting-reported-at-overland-park-jewish-community-center">killed three at a Jewish Community Center in Kansas in 2014</a>, was 73. On the left, James T. Hodgkinson, who <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/14/illinois-suspect-va-shooting-raged-against-trump-republicans/102846780/">attacked the GOP Congressional baseball team practice</a>, was 66.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Vegas gunman was also in his sixties.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
More study is needed. These incidents might simply be outliers. The vast majority of terrorists and violent criminals will continue to be between their late teens and early thirties. But those are also the populations most likely to be monitored. Even a small uptick in violence from a population generally assumed to be non-violent could have a significant impact on public safety.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Guns</b></div>
<div>
It is not my intention to wade into the question of gun control. People who are passionate about gun ownership know the law back and forth. I don't. I cannot accept either mass tragedies such as Las Vegas and Orlando or the steady and endless stream of deaths and injuries by firearms. I don't know what policies would necessarily be effective in achieving this. But I will make two tentative observations.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
First, plenty of people make good livings spinning out dramatic terrorist attacks scenarios. It is kind of fun, and if you can sell it, you can become a consultant and/or peddle technological solutions. Drones are the nightmare <i>du jour</i>. Let's be clear, drones are being used by state and non-state U.S. adversaries on battlefields. But terrorists using drones to strike within the U.S., <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/military/with-drones-spotted-at-port-tampa-bay-international-fears-hit-home/2339893">such as described in this article</a>, is actually not that easy. The scenario is a drone dropping a thermite grenade on a gas tank. This might be very bad. But the focus in <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/27/fbi-director-terrorist-drones-coming-here-imminently-video/">these and other scenarios</a> is on how terrorists would use drones to deliver explosives or toxins. Putting aside that - <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2017/03/drones-as-cheap-wmd-skeptical-take.html">as I've written elsewhere</a> - this may not be that easy, the assumption is that the terrorists have explosives or toxins. But in fact explosives and toxins are not <i>that </i>easy to obtain. The chokepoint in preventing these attacks is not the drones, it is the weapon.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So while experts are obsessing about hard to pull off drone attacks, tools with proven death dealing capabilities are easily and readily available.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Second, there is a question of broader politics. Lobbyists for firearm ownership have been extraordinarily successful. Politics changes. Public opinion is shifting against them and eventually politics will follow. When they start losing, they will start losing big - sliding down the slippery slope they worry so much about.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The vast majority of gun owners, who are law-abiding and safety conscious will accept these new inconveniences. For a small number, gun ownership is about much more than a hobby, it is about identity in a very profound way that sometimes aligns with radical causes (do I really need to say more about this?) Overall smart policies (not necessarily laws) could reduce gun violence substantially. At the same time, it may spark a violent counter-reaction.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-886256795366695332017-08-21T00:52:00.002-04:002017-08-21T01:57:44.691-04:00Afghanistan Agonistes 1: No Good Choices<em>Quick note, I have two blogs - this one, which started out on terrorism and has expanded to international affairs, technology, and ideas in general. Then I have Veepcritique, which started out as sort of the commentary track to my dissertation on the vice president, but now is more broadly on presidents, politics, and White House process. This particular rant is unique because part 1 is at here at TerrorWonk because it is about the policy aspects of Afghanistan. <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/08/vpwatch2-afghanistan-agonistes-2-pences.html">Part 2 is about the struggles in actually making policy on Afghanistan and the Vice President's increasingly significant role.</a></em><br />
<em><br /></em>
<i>Also, I was originally going to entitle this <u>Sympathy for the Donald</u>, but my sympathy for the President has evaporated.</i><br />
<em><br /></em>
Readers will have no doubts about <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2016/09/robertson-davies-on-trump.html">my thoughts on that man in the White House</a>. But the intractable problem of Afghanistan is not his doing and based on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/mattis-confirms-decision-made-on-path-forward-in-afghanistan/2017/08/20/f6cb9d9b-8606-422d-b7f5-eb826bbd95b0_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_mattis-1251pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.e3f59946d4ac">most of the reporting he is truly wrestling with the problem.</a> And that is the ugly secret of the presidency (and of really most foreign policy issues) there are no good choices. You have to decide what costs you can live with.<br />
<br />
In a nutshell, the president is wondering why we have been there for over 16 years and aren't winning? If we aren't winning with the current troop levels of 8400, and we just had 100,000 troops there, why will adding a few thousand now be anything more than a stop-gap?<br />
<br />
These are very good questions. The president is right to ask them. And coming to the conclusion that we should remove our forces and leave Afghanistan to its fate is a perfectly valid conclusion. It is proving increasingly expensive in blood and treasure. It is proving a bad investment, time to cut our losses.<br />
<br />
But, this comes at a pretty high cost. If the U.S. allied government falls, it will be a strategic defeat for the U.S. (although not truly fatal to U.S. power.) It will also be very, very bad for the people of Afghanistan - who have suffered terribly over the past several decades. An Afghanistan under Taliban control could again become a center for cultivating and exporting radical Islam.<br />
<br />
The alternatives are to throw a huge number of troops to Afghanistan and really try nation-building. The problem is that it is hideously expensive and will involve significant casualties. Also, we just did that and it didn't work.<br />
<br />
Instead of going big in space with huge numbers of troops, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/afghanistan-trump-surge-obama-taliban/537291/">we could go big in time - that is make a long-term commitment to a more modest force in Afghanistan</a>. There the argument is that if the Taliban know we are not leaving so that they cannot ultimately win, they will be forced to come to the table. It is a good argument, and while expensive it is not inconceivable. Politically the American people want wars to end and a presence in Afghanistan keeps us wrapped up with neighboring Pakistan.<br />
<br />
It appears the president will choose to send about 3800 more troops. This will buy some time for the government in Kabul. Will it be enough for that government to develop the capacity to defeat the Taliban or at least force them to the negotiating table? Perhaps, it's a gamble. It has the political advantage that it removes any really hard decisions to a few years in the future. Presidents often like that.<br />
<br />
It is this lousy set of options that led the president to seriously consider <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/mattis-confirms-decision-made-on-path-forward-in-afghanistan/2017/08/20/f6cb9d9b-8606-422d-b7f5-eb826bbd95b0_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_mattis-1251pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.e3f59946d4ac">hiring mercenaries to do the job in Afghanistan</a>. Most presidential aspirants campaign arguing that there are simple, easy solutions that only they know about. But, most politicians know quite well, that magic is not real.<br />
<br />
Our first amateur president is learning this in real time, the hard way. Most hard problems are about deciding what kind of pain you can live with - defeat, endless commitment, or huge expense. The default is usually incrementalism and that appears to be the path chosen. It is understandable, but it too has costs. Incrementalism can lead to greater costs down the line as commitments slowly increase without a clear decision. A hard expensive decision at the beginning often leads to better policy. But here I do have some sympathy for anyone faced with such a decision.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-67454500201000985012017-06-11T15:42:00.000-04:002017-06-11T15:42:17.601-04:00The Data Story-Teller<div class="MsoNormal">
Data scientist is now officially the <a href="https://hbr.org/2012/10/data-scientist-the-sexiest-job-of-the-21st-century">hip cool job</a>. I
remember laughing at the scene a couple seasons ago in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWFJw5TnQgs">House of Cards where thegenius data scientist stood shirtless in a soundproof room, blared music andscreamed</a> as he came up with deep insights to help the Underwoods use data to
win the election.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The reality is a bit more prosaic. Surveys show most data
scientists spend <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2016/03/23/data-preparation-most-time-consuming-least-enjoyable-data-science-task-survey-says/#2fc9c2d56f63">most of their time cleaning and preparing data</a>. They aren’t
data scientists. They are data janitors. Of course a lot of science is like
that (talk to anyone who has worked in a lab.)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Anyway, I’ve been hanging around people doing big data for
over a decade now. I don’t write code and can’t do much math. So what am I?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There was a terrific article from <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/deloitte-analytics/articles/in-praise-of-light-quants-and-analytical-translators.html">Deloitte about the light quant</a>. That is someone who knew enough data science and was a skilled
communicator who could translate between the data science time and the C-suite decision-makers.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But I play a much broader role in the process than
communicating results (not that that isn’t really important!) I help
conceptualize the project. What are the problems people are trying to solve?
This is sometimes not obvious. People don’t know what they don’t know. In
discussing the surface problem, bigger problems can emerge.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I think a lot about the format and nature of the data. In
many, many cases the really interesting information is unstructured or
qualitative. What does it really mean and how do we best incorporate it? In
some projects I have played a key role in collecting the data, but in the case
of terrorism research much of the information is narrative – how do we meaningfully
describe this numerically.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then of course, when we do have results, we have to describe
them and balance them against what is already known or believed.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We understand the world through stories. In addressing
abstract problems, I often find myself asking for examples. At the core of the
process I have described are stories. There is the story of the client. What
are they saying about their workflow and challenges?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On so many interesting problems, the challenge is turning a
story with fascinating details into a number or group of numbers. In my decade
at UMIACS, I worked on projects modeling terrorist groups. Some things, like
terrorist attacks were relatively easy to turn into numerical data (how many
killed, codes for targets etc.) Other things, like information on the terrorist
group’s public statements or their internal dynamics, were a bit more
challenging to quantify. It is worth noting that computer scientists (and data
scientists) tend to be interested in type. The analysts and SMEs tend to be
interested in instance. The instance is a story, how to categorize the instance
to a type without losing too much critical information is a hard challenge. The
decisions about how this is done will shape the results – that too is part of
the story.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When there are results, they must be considered in light of
what is already known. What stories do we tell ourselves about this issue? How
does the analysis inform these stories? Does it upend them, modify them, or
confirm them. How confident can we be in the new findings? What are the broader
organizational impacts of these findings for the client?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Making policies incorporate a combination of facts and
values. Values are expressed through stories. Relying only on cold hard facts
will not result in acceptable policies – <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/05/vice-presidents-technology-policy-1.html">values have to be part of the equation.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Answering any and all of these questions requires listening
to and telling stories.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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I guess I am a Data Storyteller.<o:p></o:p></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-23052487910935989062017-06-04T14:58:00.002-04:002017-06-11T15:44:02.885-04:00Will you need a Chief Roboticist or a Chief Robotics OfficerAs I've mentioned elsewhere, your humble blogger is thinking a bit about <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/05/vice-presidents-technology-policy-1.html">technology policy issues</a> and, in particular, <a href="http://robots.law.miami.edu/2016/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Mannes_RobotGovernanceFinal.pdf">robotics</a>. So here's a little musing about the different role of the chief robotics officer (CRO) and chief roboticist.<br />
<br />
<b>Definitions</b><br />
First, a critical definition. A robot is system using the sense/think/act paradigm. That is it takes in information about the world, can process that information (and learn from it), and then act on it. In processing the information it is using nondeterministic algorithms which is a complicated way of saying we cannot predict exactly what it will do in a given situation. It will learn from data it has collected and determine the best course of action. This is what makes robots particularly interesting - it is the difference between automated (which is predictable) and autonomous. The classic example is if a self-driving car causes an accident, who is at fault? The vehicle itself had autonomy, it may not have been the programmer's error.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf8gCZ8u3Sp8I3RCnFJyaYG-rhig0sIzhIZxa2IW7c-Xv6QgUSWtENWYfIdV6MLmZoQX9qxD6liX_MkdENNoqpblVZ9ENK-XM_X-sIBx572DgnS85O1Av75YF8ZkcZBs5OVX4IYbMtpQP1/s1600/robot.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf8gCZ8u3Sp8I3RCnFJyaYG-rhig0sIzhIZxa2IW7c-Xv6QgUSWtENWYfIdV6MLmZoQX9qxD6liX_MkdENNoqpblVZ9ENK-XM_X-sIBx572DgnS85O1Av75YF8ZkcZBs5OVX4IYbMtpQP1/s1600/robot.jpeg" /></a><br />
While self-driving cars and Rosie from the Jetson's are examples of robots in the public consciousness, potential items falling under the definition described above are vast. Lots of IoT. A smart home systems that took in data about people's comings and goings and the weather might learn to adjust temperature, likes etc. That would be a robot.<br />
<br />
The CRO would be inward facing, overseeing the organization's robots, while the Chief Roboticist would be outward facing, making policy decisions facing the broader world. There would be significant overlapping expertise and in some agencies the two hats might be worn by the same person. But in most large agencies, the jobs would be very different. Consider two examples.<br />
<br />
<b>FDA as a Case Study</b><br />
The FDA regulates drugs, medical devices, and (in conjunction with the Department of Agriculture) oversees the safety of the nation's food supply. The FDA will, as robots become more ubiquitous, almost certainly employ them in various tasks ranging from building maintenance and security, to laboratory work, and in conducting inspections. The Chief Robotics Officer will need to think deeply about establishing frameworks for purchasing robots that can best serve the agency's mission. Some of these systems will be highly specialized, say for food inspection. Others, such as custodial systems, will probably be commercial (with certain modifications.) One critical issue will be the proprietary nature of the data these systems might handle (robots are inherently big data systems). Regulating the pharmaceuticals and other industries, the FDA has access to very valuable corporate data that must be handled securely and with discretion. In short it will be a hard, complicated job.<br />
<br />
The FDA's real role with robotics however, will be in regulating medical devices - many of which will be robots. Imagine a smart insulin pump or surgical system? The FDA's Chief Roboticist will be advising the agency on how to determine if these systems are safe and effective. As mentioned above, these are non-deterministic systems - it cannot be known exactly how the system will react in a given situation. The challenge of validating this type of system, devising a testing regime that ensures it is safe and effective. This will also entail considering cyber-security and privacy issues (among a whole host of other challenges.) In doing so, she will also be considering how this shapes the medical robotics industry as a whole.<br />
<br />
One person might be able to do this job. But it seems unlikely. There is overlap between the skills needed (a deep knowledge of robotics) but also a lot of variation. There may be smaller agencies where one individual handles both roles. In the FDA there may not need to be a CRO - although some organizational expertise in managing the robot pool seems appropriate. But, the Chief Roboticist would play a pretty significant role as robotics played an increasing role in health-care.<br />
<br />
<b>Other Examples</b><br />
An even more extreme case might be the Federal Trade Commission. In its mission to protect American consumers, the <a href="http://www.werobot2015.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Hartzog-Unfair-Deceptive-Robots.pdf">FTC may need to develop significant expertise in robotics</a> and require a seasoned Chief Roboticist. (They have recruited deeply experienced Chief Technologists.) Their need for a Chief Robotics officer will be far more limited (although not negligible - robots may be useful in their investigations, for example.)<br />
<br />
For a counter example, consider the EPA. In monitoring and protecting the environment, the EPA may run a pretty extensive fleet of robots. The Chief Robotics Officer will have a critical role in understanding the agency's mission (current events aside) and working with manufacturers to build systems to fulfill this mission. The EPA may not need a Chief Roboticist. There could be environmental concerns about the manufacture and disposal of robots (which will have all kinds of complicated parts involving rare and toxic materials). But the Chief Roboticist role will probably not be central to the agency.<br />
<br />
Large police departments and agencies (like the FBI or a big-city or state police department) may be an example where the CRO and Chief Roboticist are equally important. Police departments may deploy robots for a vast range of issues to ensure public safety (as well as internal uses in logistics and forensics.) Because of the sensitivity of the police role, ensuring these systems operate lawfully and safely will be a critical issue. To take one example, <a href="http://robots.law.miami.edu/2014/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Shay-etal-TheoryofConservation_final.pdf">robotic law enforcement systems may not be able to exercise the discretion that human police officers can</a> (consider speed cameras - or don't, I hate them.) Presumably police robots will not be given access to lethal force, but establishing policies around use of non-lethal force (tear gas or restraints) will be a multi-faceted challenge. The Police CRO will have a tough job.<br />
<br />
The Police Chief Roboticist will also have a tough gig. Robots will be damaged in crimes, gather evidence of crimes, and be used to commit crimes. Robo-forensics will be a field and it will require extensive technical knowledge but also a grasp of the legal issues. Further, police will need to make policy around robots in public spaces that could endanger or otherwise impact public safety. Can one person do both of these jobs? In a large organization that seems difficult.<br />
<br />
<b>Private Sector Needs</b><br />
Your humble blogger does not know much about the private sector. But this framework may be apt. Consider an automobile manufacturer: the CRO would have the challenging technical role of obtaining autonomous manufacturing robots, while the Chief Roboticist would wrestle with the vast complexities around self-driving vehicles. These are two very different jobs.<br />
<br />
Just as with government agencies, many companies may not need both positions. A hospital will need a CRO, but outward facing policies on robotics may not be an issue. Alternately, an advisory firm may not have much need for robots internally, but may develop expertise to better inform their clients.<br />
<br />
<b>Concluding Thoughts</b><br />
<br />
First, I have to observe that there is another possible position: Chief Robot. This will be the senior robot in the organization, elected to represent robotic needs. This is... a long way off.<br />
<br />
But seriously who cares? In my paper on robotics governance I observed:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Bureaucracies are bundles of programs and
routines, carrying out systematic operations. Bureaucracies, given broad goals,
have the ability to act autonomously and develop programs and responses. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
This
raises an interesting question: are bureaucracies robots? Bureaucracies take in information about the
world. They process that information. They can then act on that information,
sometimes in surprising and unexpected (and occasionally counter-productive)
ways.</blockquote>
If organizations are sort of giant robots, thinking through their configuration is important. What kinds of capabilities will they need? Robotics has the potential to be a profoundly transformative technology. Many organizations (public and private) will approach it in a haphazard manner. Government IT has often suffered from this approach (I imagine plenty in the private sector have as well). Thinking through these issues and developing the appropriate capabilities beforehand would only be prudent.<br />
<br />
Finally, in response to my observation about bureaucracies being giant robots my boss wrote in the margin: "The world's slowest robot."<br />
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<o:p></o:p></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-90296866155505307402017-03-26T15:16:00.003-04:002017-03-26T15:16:29.483-04:00Middle Age 2: Lessons from Physical Therapy<div class="MsoNormal">
I have, for years now, been going to physical therapy (PT).
Bad shoulders, bad knees, and other parts of me creak. Much of this
self-inflicted from years of lifting weights, running, and generally trying to
keep this aging meat sack fit and capable.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiefbdjpi7SCge8pHWq6mrc8GP3nrwlMw_GrsPx3xGWtTwu5EDuc-NzRZxd_ptybTBPTM8nWg0_T0-r5WJRv6do9Q00tnByfb8dNtpIHvRBVgMpx57JmrDlI0f418lqbcWbbS0VhKgBX4-O/s1600/A00064F08.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiefbdjpi7SCge8pHWq6mrc8GP3nrwlMw_GrsPx3xGWtTwu5EDuc-NzRZxd_ptybTBPTM8nWg0_T0-r5WJRv6do9Q00tnByfb8dNtpIHvRBVgMpx57JmrDlI0f418lqbcWbbS0VhKgBX4-O/s320/A00064F08.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At the core of physical therapy is the concept that around
the large muscles are a number of smaller muscles that support and stabilize
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Exercising the large muscles may
not adequately exercise the little muscles and, when stressed, they become
tight and ineffective. This of course can lead to pain elsewhere I now have
golfer’s elbow (and I would NEVER play golf). This is partially from not
exercising my forearm muscles and partly as a consequence of stresses in my
back and shoulders.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My rotator cuff is getting stronger, thank you.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But my recent rounds of PT have made me think about it as a
metaphor for other things.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Organizational
Perspective<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Organizations usually have core functions, but also lots of
auxiliary functions. Depending on the organization these auxiliary functions
may be given the attention they require, but sometimes not. This is where
private sector organizations have a huge advantage over government agencies (on
which I have a bit more expertise.) Corporate leaders have a great deal more
freedom to deploy resources than their public sector leaders. If a corporate
head believes human resources is critical and wants to build a great human
resources department that can think strategically about the organization’s
needs and future and how to build the human capital to meet them – they can do
it. They will ultimately have to justify this to their board of course, but if
they can demonstrate that this is important to the revenue line they can earn the
necessary support.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(There is a significant argument within organizational
studies as to whether private sector firms are in fact better at adapting than
public sector agencies. It is also possible that rather, private sector firms
can go out of business, so that when one becomes too inefficient to survive it
dies. Public sector agencies are almost never eliminated.)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the government, output is more complicated. It is not
simply about making money; it is providing a range of services that cannot be
withdrawn. Often the service outputs must be balanced against an enormous range
of other values – environment, diversity, transparency etc. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Taxpayers and legislatures really like to fund the tip of
the spear – Navy ships, law enforcement officers etc. But supporting the back
end: human resources, facilities, IT, and logistics are less exciting. These
support functions become like my rotator cuff: cramped and unresponsive –
ultimately inhibiting the function of the total limb.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This can be extended on a larger scale. A weightlifting
champion friend of mine explained that in the U.S. we emphasize the front
muscles (particularly the pectorals on the chest.) The Russians in contrast
emphasize the back muscles, the latissimus dorsi and rhomboids. Of course both
are essential. Bench presses without rows will lead to a major imbalance. In
current terms one can think of the perennial State-Defense wrangling. We build
one capacity, but not the other. This ultimately leaves us weaker.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Mind as Muscle<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But since I’m sliding into middle age, I’m also thinking a
bit about you know, me.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the Robertson Davies (my favorite author) novel <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Deptford-Trilogy-Business-Manticore-Wonders/dp/0140147551/ref=pd_sim_14_2?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0140147551&pd_rd_r=TW5WB98M9JAPFGKQF5RN&pd_rd_w=0T3qS&pd_rd_wg=Q9Znk&psc=1&refRID=TW5WB98M9JAPFGKQF5RN">World
of Wonders</a>, a carnival fortuneteller explains that everyone who comes to
her asks essentially the same thing, “Is this all that life has for me?”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT1eePvITyFgiMY0c22mBPju3sEze3LwnAYf27mP01-n4ME4fX8M34gg-lfGDYbwuzKmhNEkF8YKyD5gaVoo4naoiD2STGm3n_fnJyKqVMgNwELh3A8NprlFH3VnI93F6zPMfp5S8wy0Rc/s1600/WorldOfWonders.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT1eePvITyFgiMY0c22mBPju3sEze3LwnAYf27mP01-n4ME4fX8M34gg-lfGDYbwuzKmhNEkF8YKyD5gaVoo4naoiD2STGm3n_fnJyKqVMgNwELh3A8NprlFH3VnI93F6zPMfp5S8wy0Rc/s320/WorldOfWonders.jpg" width="201" /></a>Our minds and psyches are similar to our bodies. They
contain capabilities we like to exercise and which grow stronger. But th<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
ey also
have capabilities that are less exercised and become weaker. This is something
writers think about a great deal since the core ability is so very hard, but
leaves little energy for anything else. So that many of our other capabilities
are cramped and it is painful to use them.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Someone who diligently does their personal budget, but does
not exercise their imagination may find as they enter middle age a certain
lapse. With more time and freedom, and a decline in pleasure from whatever was
enjoyed before, imagination is needed more than ever – but is too weak for the
task. The alternative is also true, an active imagination but inattention to
finances could lead one to face a different set of problems.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of course, someone might have both of these aspects of life
in good stead, but there will always be a deficit and weakness. It is
inevitable that some part of the person has been underused and in middle age it
is cramped, stressed, and needs exercise.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Wouldn’t it be great if there were some sort of PT for the
mind and the soul?<o:p></o:p></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-15959579469865833302017-03-14T18:43:00.002-04:002017-03-26T15:20:47.374-04:00Drones as Cheap WMD? A Skeptical TakeSo this blog <i>is </i>the TerrorWonk, but I don't seem to be writing much about terrorism these days. Hell I don't seem to be writing much of anything lately. (I've done a bunch of academic writing that I need to post, but we'll get to that later.)<br />
<br />
A lot of terrorism analysis (is lousy, but that's another issue) focuses on groups. I'm not so deeply embedded in following ins and outs that I have so much to say anymore. But I do still think about terrorism conceptually and in particular applying my maxim that counter-terrorism is the practical application of Murphy's Law.<br />
<br />
So, with the throat clearing out of the way...<br />
<br />
<b>The Scenario</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj18do_LIB9IwayNUJhCVKuTn1tK53LTn-Wa4tFZJplcb1DYFu1u4DtTufd1Kyi7TSry9sNtd-NcxscHeaJjDDk4GDAYMlAEytQ662ZfSdaEtGkCDHJcL2Mm35YnUP7B9apXYZVi35XQ7Qv/s1600/locust-cannon.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj18do_LIB9IwayNUJhCVKuTn1tK53LTn-Wa4tFZJplcb1DYFu1u4DtTufd1Kyi7TSry9sNtd-NcxscHeaJjDDk4GDAYMlAEytQ662ZfSdaEtGkCDHJcL2Mm35YnUP7B9apXYZVi35XQ7Qv/s320/locust-cannon.png" width="320" /></a>I was at a workshop and a speaker discussed how, with advances in AI, small commercial drones could be fitted with a small amount of explosives and then autonomously target people - one drone/one person. A million of these drones could fit in a cargo container and, on arrival, be set loose on the city devastating it.<br />
<br />
It seemed a little sensational to me and the more I thought about it, the less likely it appeared.<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Technical Challenges</b><br />
First, the engineering would be non-trivial. Assuming AI (and in particular computer vision) could fly around a city and identify people as people, there would still be a some pretty tough problems to solve. The drone involved is pretty small, loading it with processors, sensors, and explosives (people over-estimate the ease of engineering explosives) is going to add weight. That will limit range and speed (or you need a bigger drone - and thus more cargo containers - more on why that is an issue below.)<br />
<br />
Building a small drone that can find and kill a person is theoretically possible, but not easy. (<a href="https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/Perdix%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf">Here's what DOD is doing with experimental micro-drones</a>). Let's assume this complex engineering feat can be overcome, actually deploying it will present a lot of other difficulties.<br />
<br />
<b>Deployment Dilemmas</b><br />
How is this million swarm of killer drones (WMDrone) to be delivered? We have it in a cargo container, but then what? This very nice (and not so tiny) <a href="https://www.amazon.com/DJI-CP-PT-000312-Phantom-4-Quadcopter/dp/B01N639RIJ/ref=dp_ob_title_ce?th=1">drone</a> has about 30 minutes of flying time. So, how does this work? Do you just release them from the port authority? Will 30 minutes flying time get them to their targets? Won't people notice the swarm of drones flying around the city? <i>What if people go inside?</i><br />
<br />
Also, will the drones need to be packed during shipping? They have explosives and stuff. Unpacking a million drones is a non-trivial endeavor. It requires time, space, and people.<br />
<br />
For this to work, the drones need to start near their targets. They need to be transported, hidden, and prepared. This requires having a logistical base and personnel. The problem is that people do stupid stuff (like get pulled over or really insist on getting their deposit back) and get caught. The more moving parts, the more possibilities for something going wrong.<br />
<b><br /></b>
Let's imagine an adversary has a reliable network of supporters and can secure the necessary safe houses.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Logistics Limitations</b><br />
So in a quick search the least expensive drone I found was this <a href="https://www.amazon.com/EACHINE-Quadcopter-Headless-Remote-Control/dp/B01K9T54PC/ref=sr_1_18?s=toys-and-games&ie=UTF8&qid=1489525819&sr=1-18&keywords=drones&th=1">mini quadcopter</a>. It only flies for five minutes and weighs 2 ounces. It is small enough that large numbers could be transported and hidden. Let's imagine with technology improvements it can have enough of a sensor and explosive to do the job, and a network exists to keep large numbers close to a crowd until the right moment.<br />
<br />
The drone costs $20, so for a million of them (plus the additional engineering, tens of thousands of pounds of explosives, testing, transportation, acquiring space, paying personnel) and this becomes a pretty expensive project. Even if money were no object, carrying out a project on this scale would have a pretty significant footprint. There would be thousands of tests to ensure the things worked. There would be a pretty extensive supply chain. How does one order a million drones? Where would the testing take place?<br />
<br />
Some of these problems could be overcome, the critical question would be about the adversary.<br />
<br />
<b>Capabilities and Motivation</b><br />
A nation-state could overcome a lot of these challenges. A hundred million dollar project is not inconceivable. The drones could be transported over time through diplomatic pouch to the nation's Embassy and then released when everything was in place.<br />
<br />
But would this be an effective tool for advancing national interest? Nations pursue WMD for deterrence, but as we all know from <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/">Dr. Strangelove</a>, you cannot deter if the other player does not know you possess the system. The WMDrone could not be revealed, otherwise counter-measures could be deployed, rending the system useless for deterrence.<br />
<br />
Maybe a nation would choose to use the WMDrone for a decapitation strike. But it might not work. First, given all of these technical challenges, the things could just fail. Also, given the logistical and operational footprint of the project it could be discovered beforehand. The nation building the WMDrone would need to construct facilities, hire experts, and write analysis papers. The intelligence agencies of its adversaries might notice. Even if they got to deployment, nations tend to spy on the Embassies and diplomatic personnel of their adversaries as well. The costs of being caught carrying out this plot would also be high.<br />
<br />
Terrorists might find the WMDrone quite appealing. They would have the desire, but the capability would be lacking. First, it is expensive. Terrorists usually do not have tens of millions of dollars for R&D. Second, because they act clandestinely, extensive testing would be difficult. Also, the mechanics of purchasing and assembling a million of these devices for a secret group would be very, very challenging. Finally, in the actual delivery phase, they would not benefit from an official tolerated infrastructure the way a nation-state would.<br />
<br />
Terrorists <i>might </i>find a much smaller deadly drone attack - say a few hundred - possible. But this would not be easy to do. Let's emphasize, right now the technology needed does not exist. Frankly a terrorist group that can get hold of a couple dozen pounds of high quality explosives has much simpler and sure-fire options.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8028461499990943066.post-34161913216915055232017-02-21T23:21:00.000-05:002017-02-21T23:21:55.316-05:00Middle Age 1: Shoveling Waters<div class="MsoNormal">
It isn’t a shovel, it’s an entrenching system and I really needed
it.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/NJF70sHMFN8/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NJF70sHMFN8?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>A quarter century ago, when I was an usher at a movie
theater, I saw “A River Runs Through It.” Based on autobiographical stories by
Norman MacLean, the film ends with the author as an old man fly-fishing in a
river and thinking over his life, the people he has loved, and their places in
the great river of time. The film ends with him intoning, “I am haunted by
waters.”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I was haunted by the soundtrack and every day since I first
heard it I have been humming it to myself. Just a few weeks ago it finally
occurred to me to buy it.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What does this have to do with buying a portable shovel? I
mean entrenching system?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I will turn forty-seven years old in a few months. By no
means is my life over, there is a lot still to come. Some wonderful things. But
outside of rarefied roles like Supreme Court Justice or Pope, I am not young
anymore.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If life is a sort of vacation from something else – and
sometimes I believe it is – I don’t need to start packing yet. But if there is
something I really want to do before heading home, I should probably get to it
sooner rather than later.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We live for possibilities and I still have many. But there
are also limitations. There are so many things that I know will not happen now.
There just won’t be time or I don’t really have the drive or talent. This is a
hard thing to know, but in time the bigger things become smaller and the
smaller things become bigger.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m not the old man at the end of the movie yet, but he is
not some distant relative. I greet him as a friend. So I bought a shovel – I
mean an entrenching system.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I am not one to take up fly-fishing in a beautiful Montana
canyon. But I live close to a creek. An ancient one that, in the winter when
the trees are bare and you look, you can see the sinews of the land and how
over time this little trickle of water has gouged the earth.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After a heavy rain this little creek runs hard and deep, show
its great power – moving swiftly enough that it is plain even to us with our
lives of mere decades.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After one storm, I saw a spot where the water crashed over
rocks clogged with leaves. I watched for a long while as the water pressed
forward, colliding, forming eddies. I could have watched forever.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But instead, with a stick I began clearing the debris. And
it brought me such a simple joy to ease the way of the waters.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjctnT7Ph4PiLpJudHfRBFJ-dDSL0dAI4eJZb5KytWxdxVp-0rb0yU7iE4yAikwSV9r1Ovl4xnR0oivOCNMlMWbWxAXVrvkludnsyQ_iTIcmIF2KdkKB2ZL8A5fR_x_HFFYkINrfm8WLclq/s1600/EntrenchingSystem.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjctnT7Ph4PiLpJudHfRBFJ-dDSL0dAI4eJZb5KytWxdxVp-0rb0yU7iE4yAikwSV9r1Ovl4xnR0oivOCNMlMWbWxAXVrvkludnsyQ_iTIcmIF2KdkKB2ZL8A5fR_x_HFFYkINrfm8WLclq/s200/EntrenchingSystem.jpg" width="200" /></a>As days went by, I returned and I found more and more places
where I could unblock the water. But I needed tools. Sometimes there were small
shoals where water gathered and sat, stagnant.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So I bought a little shovel, rather an entrenching system
and I headed to<o:p></o:p></div>
the stream.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My wife observed that there is no shortage of chores around
the house. A yard to clear, gutters to clean. She’s right of course. My work
clearing the stream has no purpose. The waters have been going where they are
supposed to go since the earth formed and will do so until it is no more. My
small efforts amount to nothing. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3wA7No6qd0GvjYi5Namni4YHkqhyXiOd6eQk0kNMUoR3-EXNCKE9FCcThyyeH-qcjl9RTgD0l7uJrjctTcEhe0zxKbsVMI2btZMxShfFgQiXyTPMxUMxbiomIUErSHkvjR4cP-PQV0gSj/s1600/IMG_7160.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3wA7No6qd0GvjYi5Namni4YHkqhyXiOd6eQk0kNMUoR3-EXNCKE9FCcThyyeH-qcjl9RTgD0l7uJrjctTcEhe0zxKbsVMI2btZMxShfFgQiXyTPMxUMxbiomIUErSHkvjR4cP-PQV0gSj/s400/IMG_7160.JPG" width="400" /></a>But whenever I have a few moments, I take my shovel, I mean
my entrenching system and go to the creek. My headphones stream the soundtrack
to “A River Runs Through It,” though sometimes I take them off to hear the
waters murmur. And for a little while I touch something so much greater than
myself and my tiny cares.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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I am haunted by waters.<o:p></o:p></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0